REAL PROGNOSTICS - CHALLENGES, ISSUES, AND LESSONS LEARNED CHASING THE BIG 'P'

机译：真正的预测-追逐大P的挑战，问题和经验教训

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The desire and need for real predictive prognostic capabilities have been around for as long as man has operated complex and expensive machinery. This has been true for both mechanical and electronic systems. There has been a long history of trying to develop and implement various degrees of prognostic and useful life remaining capabilities. Stringent Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Health Management (PHM) capability requirements are being placed on new applications, like the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), in order to enable and reap the benefits of revolutionary Autonomic Logistic support concepts. While fault detection and fault isolation effectiveness with very low false alarm rates continue to improve on these new applications; prognostics requirements are even more ambitious and present very significant challenges to the system design teams. These prognostic challenges have been aggressively addressed for mechanical systems for some time; but are only recently being fully explored for electronics systems. This paper will explore some of these design challenges and issues; discuss the various degrees of prognostic capabilities; address potential development methodologies; and draw heavily on lessons learned from previous prognostic development efforts.

机译：只要人们操作着复杂而昂贵的机器，人们对真正的预测预后能力的需求就一直存在。机械和电子系统都是如此。尝试开发和实施各种程度的预后和使用寿命剩余功能已有很长的历史。严格的诊断，预后和健康管理（PHM）功能要求被放在诸如联合打击战斗机（JSF）之类的新应用程序上，以实现并从革命性的自主逻辑支持概念中受益。在这些新应用中，虽然错误检测率和错误隔离率非常低的故障检测和故障隔离效率仍在不断提高；预测要求更加雄心勃勃，并且对系统设计团队提出了非常重大的挑战。对于机械系统，这些预后挑战已得到积极解决，已有一段时间。但直到最近才对电子系统进行全面探索。本文将探讨其中的一些设计挑战和问题。讨论不同程度的预后能力；解决潜在的开发方法；并从先前的预后开发工作中吸取教训。

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来源
《Society for Machinery Failure Prevention Technology Meeting; 20050418-21; Virginia Beach,VA(US)》|2005年|P.461-479|共19页
会议地点 Virginia BeachVA(US)
作者
Andrew Hess; Giulio Calvello; Peter Frith;
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作者单位

Joint Strike Fighter Program Office 200 12'th Street South Arlington, VA 22202-4304;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类 TH171;
关键词
autonomic logistics; diagnostics; logistics; prognostics; support; health management;

机译：自主物流;诊断;物流;预测;支持;健康管理;

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REAL PROGNOSTICS - CHALLENGES, ISSUES, AND LESSONS LEARNED CHASING THE BIG 'P'

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