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首页> 外文会议>Specialty Conference on Emission Inventory: Living in a Global Environment Vol.1 Dec 8-10, 1998, New Orleans, LA >Making Inventories More Useful by Applying Risk Analysis Techniques
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Making Inventories More Useful by Applying Risk Analysis Techniques

机译：应用风险分析技术使库存更有用

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摘要

Emission inventories everywhere suffer from a lack of quality input data. This is particularly true for inventories of pollutants such as Heavy Metals, Persistent Organic Pollutants (POP), Ammonia and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), where the emission factors are very uncertain. Not only has uncertainty in emission estimates has been a barrier to their usefulness, but lack of appreciation of this uncertainty can lead to poor decision making at a national and global level. In addition, the unreliability of costs data, the extent of future activities and the take up of new technologies, means that the uncertainty problem remains for the two major applications on emission inventories in air quality management, namely emission projections and cost benefit analyses. Recently, risk analysis techniques, designed to aid decision making where available data is scarce and of poor quality, have been used on UK national emission. The results show that Risk Analysis techniques can be a major aid in decision making and crucially in identifying the most appropriate way of targeting resources to improve the quality of emission inventories.
机译：各地的排放清单都缺乏高质量的输入数据。对于排放因子非常不确定的污染物清单（尤其是重金属，持久性有机污染物（POP），氨和非甲烷挥发性有机化合物（NMVOC））的清单尤其如此。排放估算中的不确定性不仅阻碍了其实用性，而且对这种不确定性的认识不足也会导致国家和全球范围内的决策不力。此外，成本数据的不可靠性，未来活动的范围以及新技术的采用，意味着在空气质量管理中排放清单的两个主要应用中仍然存在不确定性问题，即排放预测和成本效益分析。最近，风险分析技术旨在帮助在缺乏可用数据且质量较差的情况下进行决策的技术，已用于英国国家排放。结果表明，风险分析技术可以为决策提供重要帮助，并且在确定针对资源以提高排放清单质量的最合适方法方面至关重要。

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