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首页> 外文会议>Specialty Conference on Emission Inventory: Living in a Global Environment Vol.2 Dec 8-10, 1998, New Orleans, LA >Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Trend Estimates - A Sensitivity Analysis
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Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Trend Estimates - A Sensitivity Analysis

机译：温室气体趋势估计的不确定性-敏感性分析

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摘要

The uncertainty in the Norwegian greenhouse gas (GHG) trend estimate is not known, and simple methodologies to estimate this uncertainty are not available. Instead, we have systematically explored the effect on total GHG emission trend estimates of possible errors in level and trend of individual gases. As the obligations in the Kyoto protocol are stated as total GHG emission reductions in percent (expressed as C02-equivalents), the total GHG emission trend estimate is frequently very robust with respect to errors in level and trend of individual gases. One exception is in cases where one significant pollutant or individual source shows a very different trend compared to the remaining emissions. This is a likely case in the future where the emissions of some greenhouse gases may be reduced substantially, while others will increase. Uncertainties in the level of nitrous oxide from agricultural soils, methane from landfills and perfluorated carbons from industrial processes are of main concern for the future determination of trend in the Norwegian GHG inventory. Nitrous oxide from road traffic is a sub-estimate where trend errors may be serious for the total inventory trend estimate. Sensitivity analysis is suggested as a simple and objective way of identifying which parts of the inventory to be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the GHG trend estimates.
机译：挪威温室气体（GHG）趋势估计中的不确定性未知，因此无法使用简单的方法来估计此不确定性。取而代之的是，我们系统地探讨了单个气体的水平和趋势可能存在的误差对温室气体总排放趋势估计的影响。由于《京都议定书》中的义务被表示为温室气体总排放量减少的百分比（表示为CO2当量），因此总温室气体排放趋势估计值对于单个气体的水平和趋势误差通常非常可靠。一个例外情况是，一种重要的污染物或单个来源与其余排放相比呈现出截然不同的趋势。将来可能会出现这种情况，其中某些温室气体的排放量可能会大大减少，而另一些则会增加。来自农业土壤的一氧化二氮水平，垃圾填埋场的甲烷和工业过程的全氟化碳水平的不确定性是未来确定挪威温室气体清单趋势的主要关注点。来自道路交通的一氧化二氮是一个子估计，其中趋势误差可能对于总库存趋势估计而言是严重的。建议使用敏感性分析作为确定库存中哪些部分需要改进以减少温室气体趋势估算值不确定性的简单客观方法。

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