Probabilistic risk assessment with uncertainty model using fuzzy set theory for construction projects

机译：基于模糊集理论的建设项目不确定模型概率风险评估。

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This paper presents a new approach to systematic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) usingrnfuzzy uncertainty modeling for general construction projects. Since the approach can effectively deal with allrnthe related construction risks in terms of the estimated or assumed probability with conditional probabilityrnconcept that systematically incorporates experts’ experiences and subjective judgment, the proposed modelrnwith uncertainty modeling using fuzzy concept can be applied to general construction projects with minorrnmodifications to incorporate specific characteristics of each construction project.rnIn this study, fuzzy set theory is adopted to enhance risk assessment and to effectively handle the vaguernand dynamic phenomenon of an event. Therefore, it may be stated that the fuzzy approach is very useful, especiallyrnfor developing countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremelyrnrare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.

机译：本文提出了一种基于模糊不确定性模型的常规建设项目系统概率风险评估（PRA）的新方法。由于该方法可以通过系统地结合专家经验和主观判断的条件概率来根据估计的概率或假定的概率有效地处理所有相关的施工风险，因此所提出的带有模糊概念的不确定性模型可以应用于对项目进行较小修改的一般建筑项目。本研究采用模糊集理论来增强风险评估并有效处理事件的模糊动态现象。因此，可以说模糊方法是非常有用的，特别是对于像韩国这样的发展中国家来说，用于风险评估的客观概率数据极为罕见，因此不可避免地要利用基于专家经验的主观判断数据。

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来源
《International conference on structural safety and reliability;ICOSSAR'01》|2001年|p.1-12|共12页
会议地点 Newport Beach CA(US);Newport Beach CA(US)
作者
Hyo-Nam Cho; Hyun-Ho Choi; Man-Kyu Shin;
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作者单位

Dept. of Civil Environmental Eng., Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea;

Dept. of Civil Environmental Eng., Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea;

Dept. of Civil Environmental Eng., Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类工程力学;结构稳定理论;
关键词
probabilistic risk assessment (PRA); conditional probability concept; uncertainty modeling; fuzzy set theory; fuzzy number;

机译：概率风险评估（PRA）;;条件概率概念;;不确定性建模;;模糊集理论;;模糊数;

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Probabilistic risk assessment with uncertainty model using fuzzy set theory for construction projects

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