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首页> 外文会议>Sustainable irrigation and drainage IV: Management, technologies and policies >Global change implications on long-term water supply and demand forecasts in the Columbia River Basin
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Global change implications on long-term water supply and demand forecasts in the Columbia River Basin

机译：全球变化对哥伦比亚河流域的长期水供需预测的影响

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The Columbia River Basin (CRB) encompasses parts of seven US states and British Columbia in Canada over a land mass approximately the size of France. It is a vital part of the ecosystem and economies of the entire region. The CRB, like many watersheds around the world, is experiencing increased pressure on water resources and ecosystems, due to population growth, threatened and endangered species, economic development, and climate change. Irrigation is responsible for the majority of consumptive use in the watershed so the implications of climate change are a tremendous concern as we strive to feed a growing population. To facilitate strategic planning and investment, the State of Washington requires a long-term water supply and demand forecast (the Forecast) every five years. An interdisciplinary WSU research team integrated three biophysical models with an agricultural economics model to conduct a system-wide assessment of how future environmental and economic conditions are likely to change water supply and demand by 2030. Timing of supply changes will shift water away from the times when demands are highest. Unregulated surface water supply at the mouth of the watershed will decrease an average of 14.3% between June and October, and increase an average of 17.5% between November and May. The model predicts an additional 141,000 acre-feet (17.3 MCM) of water will be required just to maintain existing irrigation in Washington. The average gross revenue per acre for irrigated land in Washington was estimated to be $3,500 and average water use is 3.1 acre feet per acre. Applying these two values to the 141,000 acre foot shortage translates into a decrease in value of production of $159 million per year although actual losses would likely be less as farmers could reduce water demand by favoring less water intensive crops such as wine grapes or chose to reduce production of lower value irrigated crops first. Within the entire CRB, an estimated 298,500 acre-feet of additional water will be needed. Localized impacts could be more severe than the broader overall averages. The Forecast will help the State of Washington's Office of Columbia River strategically fund water supply projects by improving understanding of where additional water supply is most critically needed, now and in the future.
机译：哥伦比亚流域（CRB）涵盖了美国七个州和加拿大的不列颠哥伦比亚省的部分地区，土地面积约为法国大小。它是整个地区生态系统和经济的重要组成部分。与世界上许多流域一样，由于人口增长，受威胁和濒危物种，经济发展和气候变化，CRB与水资源和生态系统面临的压力越来越大。在流域，灌溉是消费的主要部分，因此，在我们努力养活不断增长的人口的过程中，气候变化的影响是一个巨大的问题。为了促进战略规划和投资，华盛顿州要求每五年进行一次长期水供应和需求预测（The Forecast）。 WSU的一个跨学科研究团队将三种生物物理模型与一种农业经济学模型相结合，以对未来的环境和经济状况到2030年可能如何改变水的供需进行全系统评估。供应变化的时机将使水远离时代当需求最高时。流域口未经监管的地表水供应在6月至10月之间平均减少14.3％，在11月至5月之间平均增加17.5％。该模型预测，仅华盛顿要维持现有的灌溉，就需要额外的141,000英亩-英尺（17.3 MCM）的水。华盛顿灌溉土地的每英亩平均总收入估计为3500美元，平均用水量为每英亩3.1英亩。将这两个价值应用于141,000英亩的土地短缺，每年的生产价值将减少1.59亿美元，尽管由于农民可以通过偏爱水分密集程度较低的农作物（如酿酒葡萄）减少水分需求或选择减少产量来减少实际用水量，因此实际损失可能较小首先生产较低价值的灌溉作物。在整个CRB中，估计需要298,500英亩英尺的额外水。局部影响可能比更广泛的总体平均水平更为严重。该预测将通过增进对现在和将来最需要额外供水的地方的了解，来帮助华盛顿州哥伦比亚河办公室战略性地资助供水项目。

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