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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; 20060723-27; Nijmegen(NL) >Fresh Insights into System Dynamics Methodology- Developing an abductive inference perspective
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Fresh Insights into System Dynamics Methodology- Developing an abductive inference perspective

机译：对系统动力学方法论的新见解-建立归纳推理观点

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Issues relating to System Dynamics (SD) method and the validation of SD models are an important preoccupation of SD practitioners. It is argued that these issues are debated within the framework set by deductive logic which is appropriate for closed systems, but not for open systems as typically found in management decision making. Using the early Forrester- Ansoff and Slevin debate as a prime example (Forrester, 1968; Ansoff and Slevin, 1968), it is shown that while Ansoff and Slevin argue from the position of deductive logic which assumes certainty and no environmental change, Forrester is arguing from an abductive inference framework in which action results from a best available hypothesis resulting from the development and use of an SD model within a broader learning-decision making framework. In addition, it is argued that the familiar events-patterns-structure tool used in SD is a structured approach to the abduction process. An implication of these arguments is that debates relating to SD methodology need to shift emphasis from the validation of models to debates on evaluation of the model development process, the implementation of strategies based on model-based thinking, and the associated outcomes.
机译：有关系统动力学（SD）方法和SD模型验证的问题是SD从业人员的重要工作。有人认为，这些问题是在演绎逻辑设定的框架内辩论的，演绎逻辑适用于封闭系统，但不适用于管理决策中通常使用的开放系统。以早期的Forrester- Ansoff和Slevin辩论为主要例子（Forrester，1968； Ansoff和Slevin，1968），这表明，尽管Ansoff和Slevin从演绎逻辑的立场出发，这种演绎逻辑假定是确定的，没有环境变化，但Forrester是从一个归纳推理框架中争论，在该推理框架中，行动是由更广泛的学习决策框架内SD模型的开发和使用所产生的最佳假设所导致的。此外，有人认为，SD中使用的熟悉的事件模式结构工具是绑架过程的结构化方法。这些论点的含义是，与可持续发展方法论有关的辩论需要将重点从模型验证转移到有关模型开发过程评估，基于模型思维的策略实施以及相关结果的辩论上。

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