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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; 20060723-27; Nijmegen(NL) >Implications of Dynamic Decision Making Research on Monetary Policy Making at the Federal Reserve
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Implications of Dynamic Decision Making Research on Monetary Policy Making at the Federal Reserve

机译：动态决策研究对美联储货币政策制定的启示

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Study of Dynamic Decision Making (DDM) has been devoted to understanding the behaviors of decision makers facing dynamic decision making tasks. DDM involves decision tasks embedded in complex systems, the structure of which is not fully known to the decision makers. Previous DDM research mainly took an experimental approach, attempting to explain how people make dynamic decisions and how to improve DDM outcomes. This study examined implications of the laboratory findings on a real DDM case: decision making behavior of monetary policy makers at the Federal Reserve. DDM theories were used as a framework to understand the monetary decision making behavior. From analysis of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting transcripts, this study suggests that policy makers face a difficult decision making environment that many DDM studies have associated with negative task performance, but unlike typical decision makers described in the DDM literatures, the FOMC members develop ways to tackle the difficulties. Observation of the FOMC decision making behavior suggests decision makers in the real world may be more competent than expected by the DDM theories. Based on the findings, this article also proposes new topics for future DDM study.
机译：动态决策研究（DDM）致力于理解面对动态决策任务的决策者的行为。 DDM涉及嵌入在复杂系统中的决策任务，决策者并不完全了解其结构。先前的DDM研究主要采用实验方法，试图解释人们如何做出动态决策以及如何改善DDM结果。这项研究检查了实验室发现对实际DDM案例的影响：美联储货币政策制定者的决策行为。 DDM理论被用作理解货币决策行为的框架。根据对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议记录的分析，该研究表明决策者面临艰难的决策环境，许多DDM研究都将其与负面任务绩效相关联，但是与DDM文献中描述的典型决策者不同，FOMC成员开发解决困难的方法。对FOMC决策行为的观察表明，现实世界中的决策者可能比DDM理论所预期的更有能力。基于这些发现，本文还为将来的DDM研究提出了新的主题。

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