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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >Landscape dynamics of E1 Farol attendees
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Landscape dynamics of E1 Farol attendees

机译：E1 Farol与会者的景观动态

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摘要

Data is ubiquitously available to each of us. We have been inductively forming our beliefs and perceptions, and adaptively building our expectation formation patterns by observing the past and present events taking place around us. The interplay between what is deduced from the aggregated average behavior and instantaneous forecasts of individuals based upon what is accessible to them shapes the evolutionary path of society's trend.Inductive methodologies allow agents to construct their own decision making mechanisms from information allocated to all in common. Being an example of this approach, agent-based methodology adopts simple behavioral rules and allows a coordinated equilibrium to be an emergent property of the system, instead of modeling the system as if everyone's actions and beliefs were synchronized a priori with everyone else's (1,2).Arthur's El Farol bar problem brings up a paradigm (3). A total number of N players must decide independently whether to attend the bar or not. If a player forecasts that the total attendance will exceed the comfort level, L, she will not show up, otherwise she will go. We are interested in the way the players predict the total attendance and its long-term characteristics. The problem is based on the agents' knowledge of the overall attendance history, but the individual actions are not known. Yet, a collective behavior emerges from the system, whereby the average attendance is bounded on two sides by the threshold imposed from the outside, and the randomness that would take over the system in the absence of the threshold.
机译：数据无处不在，对我们每个人都是可用的。我们一直在归纳地形成我们的信念和看法，并通过观察我们周围过去和现在发生的事件来适应性地建立我们的期望形成模式。从汇总的平均行为推断出的信息与基于个体可获取的信息而做出的个人即时预测之间的相互作用塑造了社会趋势的演进路径。归纳方法允许代理人根据分配给所有人的信息构建自己的决策机制。作为这种方法的一个例子，基于主体的方法采用简单的行为规则，并允许协调均衡成为系统的紧急属性，而不是像对每个人的行为和信念都先验地与其他人一样对系统进行建模（1， 2）。亚瑟的El Farol酒吧问题提出了一个范式（3）。总共N个玩家必须独立决定是否参加酒吧。如果玩家预测总出席人数将超过舒适度L，则她不会出现，否则她会参加。我们对玩家预测总出勤率及其长期特征的方式感兴趣。问题是基于座席对整个出勤历史的了解，但是各个动作是未知的。但是，集体行为从系统中出现，因此平均出勤在两侧受到外部施加的阈值以及在没有阈值的情况下将接管系统的随机性的限制。

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