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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >Developing a diffusion model of competing alternative drive-train technologies (cadt-model)
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Developing a diffusion model of competing alternative drive-train technologies (cadt-model)

机译：开发竞争性替代动力传动系统技术的扩散模型（军官模型）

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摘要

Strategic measures for global ecology and security of energy supply particularly affect road traffic, as a main originator of greenhouse gas emissions by use of fossil energy. The introduction of several alternative, eco-friendly drive-train technologies in the automotive fleet leads to a competition with the existing petrol and diesel engines as well as with each other. A system dynamics model is developed to understand the fundamental competing forces driving the market penetration of the- new technologies, and to derive policy implications and strategies potentially contributing to their successful introduction. A conceptual model is presented to examine different diffusion patterns between competing technologies. First results show, that reaching a critical market share in time is a decisive factor. This is demonstrated for the case of Switzerland, that represents a demand driven market without an autonomous automotive industry.
机译：全球生态和能源供应安全的战略措施特别影响道路交通，这是使用化石能源导致温室气体排放的主要来源。汽车车队中引入了几种替代性的，环保的传动系统技术，这导致了与现有汽油和柴油发动机以及彼此之间的竞争。开发了系统动力学模型，以了解驱动新技术市场渗透的基本竞争力，并得出可能对成功引入新技术有所帮助的政策含义和策略。提出了一个概念模型来研究竞争技术之间的不同扩散模式。初步结果表明，及时达到关键的市场份额是决定性因素。在瑞士的情况下就证明了这一点，它代表了一个由需求驱动的市场，而没有自动驾驶汽车行业。

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