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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies and their Economic Impacts
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Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies and their Economic Impacts

机译：减轻大流行性流感的策略及其经济影响

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摘要

The current avian influenza in Asia, Africa, and Europe has sparked discussions of a new human pandemic influenza perhaps hitting the world. While the current influenza is not spread by human-to-human contact-a necessary characteristic for a human pandemic-there is a potential that it may become so. Since the pandemic does not currently exist, it is not known what characteristics-such as infectiousness and death rate-the disease will exhibit. The study conducted by the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) explores the possible mitigation strategies and their effect on the US economy. Results show that while many people may be infected, the economic costs for the US are relatively low especially in comparison to past economic perturbations.
机译：当前在亚洲，非洲和欧洲的禽流感引发了关于可能正在全世界流行的新型人类大流行性流感的讨论。尽管当前的流行性感冒并未通过人与人之间的传播而传播，这是人类大流行的必要特征，但仍有可能成为流行病。由于目前尚不存在大流行，因此尚不清楚该疾病将表现出什么特征（例如传染性和死亡率）。关键基础设施保护决策支持系统（CIPDSS）进行的研究探讨了可能的缓解策略及其对美国经济的影响。结果表明，尽管许多人可能受到感染，但与过去的经济动荡相比，美国的经济成本相对较低。

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