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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >Natural gas demand and supply in Italy
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Natural gas demand and supply in Italy

机译：意大利的天然气供需状况

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摘要

This article explores the dynamics between natural gas supply and demand in Italy. In order to supply Italy with increasing volumes of gas, several new pipelines and regasification plants are expected in the next future, but their implementation is uncertain. Thus, there exist the possibility of natural gas shortage in the future. On the other hand, if all the expected projects will be implemented, situations of oversupply cannot be excluded. In order to study the dynamics between supply and demand of natural gas a system dynamic model has been built. The model core consists of a stock representing the transport network, with the total natural gas supply acting as inflows, and the total natural gas demand as an outflow. A key role in the model is played by the natural gas storage system. The model allows to explore future scenarios, make sensitivity analysis and verify which are the key variables in the determination of situations of gas shortage or oversupply.
机译：本文探讨了意大利天然气供需之间的关系。为了向意大利提供更多的天然气，预计在未来的将来会有几条新的管道和再气化厂，但实施起来还不确定。因此，将来存在天然气短缺的可能性。另一方面，如果所有预期的项目都将得到执行，则无法排除供过于求的情况。为了研究天然气供需之间的动力学，建立了系统动力学模型。模型核心由代表运输网络的存量组成，天然气总供应量作为流入量，天然气总需求量作为流出量。该模型的关键作用在于天然气存储系统。该模型允许探索未来情景，进行敏感性分析并验证哪些是确定天然气短缺或供过于求情况的关键变量。

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