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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >Controlling Employment, Profitability and Proved Non-Renewable Reserves in a Theoretical Model of the U.S. Economy
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Controlling Employment, Profitability and Proved Non-Renewable Reserves in a Theoretical Model of the U.S. Economy

机译：以美国经济的理论模型控制就业，盈利能力和已证明的不可再生储备

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摘要

This paper elaborates the original theoretical law of capital accumulation that (in its initial or transformed form) gives birth to scenarios of macroeconomic evolution. The state variables are relative labour compensation, employment ratio, gross unit rent, produced capital-output ratio, proved non-renewable reserves-output ratio, desired proved non-renewable reserves-output ratio, and depletion of non-renewable reserves per unit of net output. This law was presented in the author's earlier books and papers.Worsening profitability and declining employment ratio over the long term characterise the inertia scenario for the U.S. economy over 1991-2107. Excessive depletion of proved non-renewable reserves contributes to these disadvantageous tendencies.This paper demonstrates how a forward-looking investment policy based on proportional and derivative control over proved non-renewable reserves brings about their extension, raises profitability and employment over the long term in the first normative scenario in comparison with the inertia scenario.Long waves with ups and downs of substantial amplitude in profitability, in employment ratio and in other indicators represent the shortcomings of this normative scenario. These shortcomings necessitate elaboration of closed-loop control over total profit and employment ratio in addition to closed-loop control over proved non-renewable reserves.The initial theoretical law is transformed into control law of capital accumulation. The present operational application of this control law to the U.S. economy reveals and explains substantial lasting improvements in profitability, employment ratio, labour productivity and real labour compensation in the second normative scenario compared with the first normative scenario that are achieved together with extending proved non-renewable reserves.
机译：本文阐述了资本积累的原始理论定律（以初始形式或转换形式）孕育了宏观经济演变的情景。状态变量是相对劳动报酬，就业率，单位租金总值，生产资本产出比，已证明不可再生储备产出比，所需已证明不可再生储备产出比以及每单位不可再生储备的枯竭净输出。长期以来，盈利能力的提高和就业率的下降是1991年至2107年美国经济惯性情景的特征。探明不可再生储量的过度消耗加剧了这些不利趋势。本文证明了基于比例和衍生控制的已探明不可再生储量的前瞻性投资政策将如何扩大储量，长期提高盈利能力和就业与惯性情景相比，第一个规范情景。在盈利能力，就业率和其他指标上出现大幅波动的长波代表了该规范情景的缺点。这些缺陷除了对已证明的不可再生储备进行闭环控制外，还需要对总利润和就业率进行闭环控制。最初的理论定律转化为资本积累的控制定律。目前，该控制法在美国经济中的业务应用揭示并解释了在第二规范性情景中，与第一规范性情景相比，在盈利能力，就业率，劳动生产率和实际劳动报酬方面的持久性显着提高，同时扩展了经证明的非可再生储量。

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