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Modeling Risk Classification Scheme for System Dynamics Modeling

机译:用于系统动力学建模的风险分类方案建模

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摘要

System dynamics modelers face a broad spectrum of risks toward achieving project objectives. As they gain experience, their risk identification and management capabilities increase. By applying classification techniques from taxonomy development, the collective knowledge of previous modelers has been captured in a classification scheme for system dynamics modeling risks. The classification scheme allows modelers to more efficiently and effectively consider modeling risks by reducing the variation in their knowledge levels. The classification structure is focused on the steps of the system dynamics modeling methodology and the achievement of system knowledge and improvement objectives. As part of a broader modeling risk management approach, the risk classification scheme assists modelers in identifying and prioritizing the anticipated sources of modeling risks for a project. With that knowledge, they can more effectively identify the appropriate techniques for managing risks and then efficiently apply those techniques in a timely fashion through the entire project cycle.
机译:系统动力学建模人员在实现项目目标时面临着广泛的风险。随着他们积累经验,他们的风险识别和管理能力将增强。通过应用分类学发展中的分类技术,先前建模者的集体知识已被收集到用于系统动力学建模风险的分类方案中。通过分类方案,建模人员可以通过减少知识水平的变化来更有效地考虑建模风险。分类结构的重点是系统动力学建模方法论的步骤以及系统知识和改进目标的实现。作为更广泛的建模风险管理方法的一部分,风险分类方案可帮助建模人员确定项目的建模风险的预期来源并对其进行优先排序。有了这些知识,他们可以更有效地确定用于管理风险的适当技术,然后在整个项目周期中及时有效地应用这些技术。

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