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首页> 外文会议>Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium, 2009. SIEDS '09 >Risk-based methodology for assessing and managing the severity of a terrorist attack
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Risk-based methodology for assessing and managing the severity of a terrorist attack

机译：基于风险的方法，用于评估和管理恐怖袭击的严重性

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Terrorist attacks on a physical site can be detrimental in terms of lives and monetary loss. A major component of preparing for such an attack is deciding how to allocate funds; insufficient budgeting may expose the site to worst-case consequences, whereas over-budgeting may create inefficiency. Thus deciding how many funds to allocate for attack preparation should incorporate information regarding the anticipated severity of the terrorist attack. This paper discusses a methodology based on Risk Analysis and Risk Management that aids decision makers in understanding the trade-off between pecuniary loss and human loss, and applies the process specifically to a case study involving the New York Stock Exchange. Integrating this methodology with intelligence data yields information potentially useful in determining a pareto-efficient budget that achieves a balance between minimizing human and monetary loss. The end product is a trade-off analysis that identifies specific strategies for mitigating the consequences of a given terrorist attack. The design incorporates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling to identify, from multiple perspectives, important and relevant sources of risk in a system. The Risk Filtering and Ranking Method then narrows the focus to one target and one method of attack: a biological attack. To evaluate the methodology quantitatively, probability distributions were used to represent a severity of attack estimated from intelligence data. Similar in concept to the terrorism threat advisory scale used by the Department of Homeland Security, this severity index reflects the potential seriousness of a terrorist attack. Monte Carlo simulation, comparing commonly used distributions, was used to determine which distribution and parameters to employ. Lastly, Multi-Objective Decision Tree Analysis was used to incorporate the severity probability distribution, feasible policy options, and cost/casualty parameters, and identifies the options that are not dominated-n in both metrics. The output is a graph of dollars versus lives lost which allows the decision maker to better visualize the trade-offs between competing objectives. This paper will be of interest to persons who wish to learn about the application of risk assessment and management in the context of defense against terrorism.
机译：恐怖袭击物理场所可能对生命和金钱造成不利影响。准备进行此类攻击的主要部分是确定如何分配资金。预算不足可能会使站点遭受最坏的后果，而预算过多可能会导致效率低下。因此，在决定分配多少资金用于攻击准备时，应纳入有关恐怖袭击的预期严重程度的信息。本文讨论了一种基于风险分析和风险管理的方法，该方法可帮助决策者了解金钱损失与人员损失之间的权衡，并将该过程专门应用于涉及纽约证券交易所的案例研究。将此方法与情报数据相集成，可以产生信息，可用于确定可节省开支的预算，从而在最大程度地减少人员和金钱损失之间取得平衡。最终产品是一种权衡分析，可确定减轻特定恐怖袭击后果的特定策略。该设计结合了分层全息建模，可以从多个角度识别系统中重要且相关的风险来源。然后，风险过滤和排名方法将重点缩小到一个目标和一种攻击方法：生物攻击。为了定量评估该方法，使用概率分布表示根据情报数据估算的攻击严重性。在概念上与国土安全部使用的恐怖主义威胁咨询量表相似，该严重性指数反映了恐怖袭击的潜在严重性。蒙特卡罗模拟，比较常用的分布，用于确定采用哪种分布和参数。最后，使用多目标决策树分析来合并严重性概率分布，可行的策略选项以及成本/伤亡参数，并确定在两个指标中都不占主导地位的选项。输出是美元与损失生命的图表，这使决策者可以更好地形象化竞争目标之间的取舍。希望对在反恐领域中风险评估和管理的应用有所了解的人们将对本文感兴趣。

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