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首页> 外文会议>Tenth International Conference on Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Air Pollution Jul, 2002 City of Segovia >Prediction of 8 hour average of carbon monoxide concentrations, in Santiago, Chile
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Prediction of 8 hour average of carbon monoxide concentrations, in Santiago, Chile

机译：智利圣地亚哥，一氧化碳浓度平均8小时的预测

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摘要

Carbon Monoxide (CO) is considered a harmful pollutant emitted mainly by motor vehicles. In large cities like Santiago, CO concentrations may reach values that exceed the norm that health organizations have established as a safe limit to which the population may be exposed (10 mg/m~3, 8 hour moving average). It is important to be able to predict with at least 30 hours in advance, when concentrations will exceed this limit, because restriction to vehicle circulation may imply a relevant decrease with respect to expected values when no actions are taken. We show here a study on the possibility to predict maximum values of 8 hour moving average of CO concentrations using past values of CO concentrations and meteorological forecasts as input to multi linear regressions and neural network models. The neural network model seems to leave more room to adjust free parameters with one year data in order to predict the following year values. We have worked with data of three years measured in two of the monitoring stations located in the urban area of Santiago.
机译：一氧化碳（CO）被认为是主要由机动车排放的有害污染物。在像圣地亚哥这样的大城市中，CO浓度可能会超过卫生组织已确定的人口可暴露的安全限值（10 mg / m〜3，8小时移动平均值）。重要的是，至少要提前30个小时预测浓度何时会超过此极限，因为如果不采取任何措施，对车辆流通的限制可能意味着相对于预期值的相应下降。我们在这里展示了一项关于使用过去的CO浓度值和气象预报值作为多元线性回归和神经网络模型输入数据来预测8小时CO浓度移动平均值最大值的可能性的研究。神经网络模型似乎留出了更多的空间来调整带有一年数据的自由参数，以便预测下一年的值。我们处理了在圣地亚哥市区两个监测站测得的三年数据。

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