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首页> 外文会议>The 2nd International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering(iCBBE 2008)(第二届生物信息与生物医学工程国际会议）论文集 >Assessment and Prediction Model of China's Energy Assurance Sustainability
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Assessment and Prediction Model of China's Energy Assurance Sustainability

机译：中国能源保障可持续性评估与预测模型

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摘要

The stability of energy supply, sustainability of energy economy and safety of energy utilization were applied as fundamental aspects for building an index system in this paper to evaluate the risk of energy security in China. The Delphi method and the principal components analyzing method were used, and ten essential indexes, such as energy consumption elastic index, proportion of clean energy consumption, energy self-reliance rate, petroleum price, regional import risk of oil and so on were chosen to set up the energy security grade as an overall index for the energy risk evaluation. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment model was also proposed in the article. In further considerations, this paper carried on a quantitative evaluation to the energy security of China in recent years by using the models of BP neural network. The early-warning forecast indicated that the predicted value of the energy security risk was safe in 2006, and the value of that in 2007 is between 'worth paying attention to' and 'danger'. Therefore, the contradiction of China's energy consumption will still exist in the near future and the situation of energy security will not be optimistic.
机译：本文以能源供应的稳定性，能源经济的可持续性和能源利用的安全性为基础，建立了评价中国能源安全风险的指标体系。运用德尔菲法和主成分分析法，选择了能源消耗弹性指数，清洁能源消耗比例，能源自给率，石油价格，石油区域进口风险等十项基本指标。将能源安全等级作为能源风险评估的总体指标。本文还提出了一种模糊综合评价模型。在进一步考虑的基础上，本文运用BP神经网络模型对中国的能源安全进行了定量评估。预警预测表明，能源安全风险的预测值在2006年是安全的，而2007年的值在“值得关注”和“危险”之间。因此，中国能源消费的矛盾在不久的将来仍将存在，能源安全形势将不容乐观。

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