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首页> 外文会议>Third International Symposium on Non-Co_2 Greenhouse Gases: Scientific Understanding, Control Options and Policy Aspects Jan 21-23, 2002 Maastricht, The Netherlands >Atmospheric ozone and climate change
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Atmospheric ozone and climate change

机译：大气臭氧与气候变化

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摘要

Ozone concentrations in the troposphere have increased significantly since pre-industrial time due to emission of ozone precursors (NOx, CO, CH_4, NMHC). Using a combination of observations and model studies it has been estimated that the global average value has increased with approximately 30 % to its present global average value of approximately 50 ppb. During the last two decades ozone growth in the troposphere has slowed down, and he current trend is unclear. Future increases in ozone are critically depending on the emission scenarios used. Adopting the IPCC SRES high emission scenario (A2), model studies give a significant growth in the ozone burden. Over the next 100 years average tropospheric concentrations could increase by more than 50 %. Estimates of radiative forcing give tropospheric ozone as the third most important man induced greenhouse gas (after CO_2 and CH_4). Estimates of the radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone since pre-industrial time are of the order 0.3 to 0.4 W/m~2. The observed changes (reductions) in stratospheric ozone are estimated to give a noticeable negative radiative forcing. The growth in ozone during this century could lead to a radiative forcing up to 0.6 W/m~2. This would be a significant contribution to the overall radiative forcing. The few studies performed up to now of the climate-chemistry interaction indicate a two way effect: Climate changes is likely to substantially affect the ozone chemistry, and changes in ozone chemistry affect the forcing of the climate system.
机译：自工业化之前的时间以来，由于臭氧前体（NOx，CO，CH_4，NMHC）的排放，对流层中的臭氧浓度已显着增加。结合观察和模型研究，估计全球平均值已增加了约30％，达到目前的约50 ppb的全球平均值。在过去的二十年中，对流层中的臭氧增长已经放缓，目前的趋势尚不清楚。臭氧的未来增加严重取决于所使用的排放方案。通过采用IPCC SRES高排放情景（A2），模型研究显着增加了臭氧负担。在未来的100年中，对流层平均浓度可能增加50％以上。对辐射强迫的估计使对流层臭氧成为第三大最重要的人为诱发的温室气体（仅次于CO_2和CH_4）。自工业化前以来对流层臭氧的辐射强迫估计约为0.3到0.4 W / m〜2。估计平流层臭氧的观测变化（减少）会产生明显的负辐射强迫。本世纪臭氧的增长可能导致辐射强迫高达0.6 W / m〜2。这将对整体辐射强迫作出重大贡献。迄今为止，对气候-化学相互作用进行的研究很少，这表明有两种方式的影响：气候变化可能会严重影响臭氧化学，而臭氧化学的变化则会影响气候系统的强迫。

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