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首页> 外文会议>Third Meeting on Celestical Mechanics - CELMEC III Jun 18-22, 2001 Rome, Italy >ANALYSIS OF THE SPACE DEBRIS IMPACTS RISK ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
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ANALYSIS OF THE SPACE DEBRIS IMPACTS RISK ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION

机译：空间碎片对国际空间站的影响风险分析

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摘要

Oepik's analytical expressions relate in a simple way the sem major axis, eccentricity and inclination of the projectile orbit to the magnitude and direction of the relative velocity vector at impact on a given target on circular orbit. These interesting quantities, along with the impact probability of any given projectile, can be all represented on a suitable projection giving a comprehensive picture of the impact risk on the selected target. By means of this theory a complete analysis of the impact risk on the International Space Station (ISS) is performed. It is found that the large majority of the debris population is on orbits such that a correlation exists between their impact velocity on the ISS and the angle between the velocity vector of the impactor and that of the ISS. The impactor population also is separated in terms of nature of the projectiles, with most of the low-medium velocity ones being particles related to solid rocket motor slag condensates. On the other hand, the highest velocity projectiles are composed mainly by fragments of past in-orbit explosions. The flux of projectiles on the ISS has been calculated for the planned operative lifetime of the Station, by assuming a realistic scenario of the future debris environment evolution and the actual planned altitude profile for the ISS mission. There is a factor 2-3 variation of the flux due to the changing ISS altitude. The most dangerous part of the mission appears to be the central one, when the ISS will orbit at about 450 km above the Earth.
机译：Oepik的解析表达式以简单的方式将sem主轴，射弹轨道的偏心率和倾斜度与撞击到圆轨道上给定目标的相对速度矢量的大小和方向相关联。这些有趣的数量以及任何给定弹丸的撞击概率都可以在合适的投射上表示出来，从而全面了解所选目标的撞击风险。利用这一理论，对国际空间站（ISS）的撞击风险进行了完整的分析。已经发现，绝大多数碎片在轨道上，因此它们在国际空间站上的撞击速度与撞击器的速度矢量与国际空间站的速度矢量之间的夹角之间存在相关性。撞击物的种类在弹丸的性质上也是分开的，大多数中低速撞击物是与固体火箭发动机炉渣冷凝物有关的颗粒。另一方面，最高速度的弹丸主要由过去在轨爆炸的碎片组成。通过假设未来碎片环境演变的现实情景和国际空间站任务的实际计划高度剖面，可以计算出国际空间站上弹丸的通量，用于该站的计划工作寿命。由于ISS高度的变化，通量有2-3倍的变化。这次飞行任务中最危险的部分似乎是中央部分，这时国际空间站将在距地球约450公里的轨道上运行。

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