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Looking Forward, Looking Back on Computer Simulation Models of Safety

机译:展望未来,回顾安全的计算机仿真模型

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The main measure of the safe performance of a traffic system is the severity of a crash. Recentrndevelopments in computer, data collection, and communication technology have hadrnconsiderable impact on our ability to replicate driver behavior and understand the processesrninvolved in a crash. This paper looks at the use of computer models to simulate and assess thernfactors influencing crashes in existing and future traffic systems. It focuses on stochasticrnnumerical models of traffic behavior and how reliable these are in estimating the conflict–crashrnprocess on the traffic network. It has been shown that these models have potential in measuringrnthe level of conflict on parts of the network and the measures of conflict correlated well withrncrash statistics. By using surrogate safety measures these models focus on the measures of speedrnand location in the conflict and do not include other factors contributing to the crash. Further, thernmodels assume the driver has full information on which to make a decision during the conflictrnprocess. Interest in the prediction of crashes and crash severity is growing and new models arernfocusing on the continuum of general traffic conditions, conflict, severe conflict, crash, andrnsevere crashes.
机译:交通系统安全性能的主要衡量标准是崩溃的严重性。计算机,数据收集和通信技术的最新发展对我们复制驱动程序行为和理解崩溃所涉及的过程的能力产生了巨大影响。本文着眼于使用计算机模型来模拟和评估影响现有和未来交通系统中撞车的因素。它着重于交通行为的随机数值模型,以及这些模型在估算交通网络上的冲突—崩溃过程时的可靠性。结果表明,这些模型具有测量网络部分冲突程度的潜力,并且冲突的度量与崩溃统计数据相关性很好。通过使用替代安全措施,这些模型将重点放在冲突中速度和位置的度量上,而不包括其他导致撞车的因素。此外,模型假设驾驶员具有在冲突过程中要做出决定的完整信息。对碰撞和碰撞严重程度的预测的兴趣正在增长,并且新模型正在关注一般交通状况,冲突,严重冲突,碰撞和严重碰撞的连续性。

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