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首页> 外文会议>Water quality: current trends and expected climate change impacts >Determining the nitrate contribution of the Red River to the Atchafalaya River in the northern Gulf of Mexico under changing climate
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Determining the nitrate contribution of the Red River to the Atchafalaya River in the northern Gulf of Mexico under changing climate

机译：在气候变化的情况下确定红河对墨西哥湾北部阿察法拉亚河的硝酸盐贡献

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The Mississippi-Atchafalaya River system exports each year over 1.2 × 10~6 tonnes of nitrate nitrogen into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The excess nutrient load caused by intensive agriculture in the Upper Mississippi River Basin has been attributed to being a major cause of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf. In addition to the land use effect, future climate change may further modify regional hydrology and nutrient fluxes from land to coastal regions. This study was conducted to quantify nitrate mass loading from the Red River, the last major tributary to the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River system, and to assess the effect of future precipitation change in the Red River Basin on its nitrate input into the Atchafalaya River, which is formed by the confluence of the Red River and the Mississippi River via a diversion control structure in Louisiana. Daily river discharge at the diversion structure and the Atchafalaya was gathered for 2007-2009 to estimate the flow of the Red River. Biweekly-monthly nitrate concentrations in the Red River and the Atchafalaya River were measured for the same period to determine the Red River's contribution to the total nitrate mass load in the Atchafalaya River. A precipitation change projection based on the HadCM3 model output for IPCC B1 scenario for the 21st century was taken to discern potential changes in discharge and riverine nitrate load from the Red River Basin. We found that despite making up for nearly one third of the total flow in the Atchafalaya River, the Red River exported a marginal amount of nitrate, namely only about 3% of the total nitrate mass load in the Atchafalaya. With a 6% projected decline in precipitation, nitrate input from the Red River would likely decrease in the future, especially during the drier summer months.
机译：密西西比-阿查法拉雅河系统每年向墨西哥北部海湾出口超过1.2×10〜6吨硝酸盐氮。密西西比河上游流域的集约化农业造成的养分过剩，是造成海湾缺氧区的主要原因。除了土地利用的影响外，未来的气候变化还可能进一步改变区域水文学和从陆地到沿海地区的养分通量。这项研究的目的是量化从密西西比河-阿塔法拉雅河系统的最后一个主要支流红河的硝酸盐质量负荷，并评估红河流域未来降水变化对其向阿查法拉雅河的硝酸盐输入的影响。由红河和密西西比河的汇合处通过路易斯安那的分流控制结构形成。收集了2007-2009年分流结构和阿查法拉雅河的每日河流量，以估算红河的流量。对同一时期的红河和阿查法拉亚河每两月一次的硝酸盐浓度进行测量，以确定红河对阿查法拉亚河总硝酸盐质量负荷的贡献。采取了基于HadCM3模型输出的21世纪IPCC B1情景的降水变化预测，以识别红河流域的排放量和河流硝酸盐负荷的潜在变化。我们发现，尽管弥补了阿查法拉亚河总流量的近三分之一，红河却出口了少量的硝酸盐，即仅占阿查法拉亚总硝酸盐质量负荷的3％。预计降水量将下降6％，因此未来红河中硝酸盐的输入量可能会减少，尤其是在干燥的夏季。

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