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Modelling of the climate change effects on nitrogen loads in the Jizera catchment, Czech Republic

机译:捷克共和国吉塞拉流域气候变化对氮负荷的影响建模

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The consequences of climate change for water quality are significant and are expected to heavily influence water resources management. Here, water quality modelling was done in order to evaluate the impact of climate change on nitrogen loads in the Jizera catchment. The Jizera catchment is of high importance for drinking water supply. We have used the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which simulates water and nutrient fluxes in soil and vegetation, as well as transport of water and nutrients to and within the river network. The influence of climate change on nitrogen loads in the Jizera catchment was assessed here by using bias-corrected outputs of two dynamic regional climate models (RCMs). The two RCMs show a common trend of higher future total and summer discharge. However, the SWIM modelling results differ in terms of nitrate nitrogen load and its seasonality, between the two RCMs and among the modelled future periods. The uncertainty in the modelling results is caused mainly by differences in the regional climate models.
机译:气候变化对水质的影响是巨大的,预计将严重影响水资源管理。在这里,进行了水质建模,以评估气候变化对吉泽拉流域氮负荷的影响。吉泽拉流域对于饮用水的供应极为重要。我们使用了生态水文模型SWIM(水土保持模型),该模型可模拟土壤和植被中的水和养分通量,以及水和养分在河网内部和河网内部的运输。在这里,通过使用两个动态区域气候模型(RCM)的偏差校正输出,评估了气候变化对Jizera流域氮负荷的影响。这两个RCM显示出未来总排放量和夏季排放量增加的共同趋势。但是,SWIM建模结果在两个RCM之间以及在建模的未来期间之间在硝酸盐氮负荷及其季节性方面有所不同。模拟结果的不确定性主要是由区域气候模型的差异引起的。

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