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Impacts of climate variability and change on water temperature in an urbanizing Oregon basin, USA

机译：美国城市化俄勒冈盆地气候变化和变化对水温的影响

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Climate variability and change can impose significant stresses on water quality. Water temperature is one important measure of stream health, and is directly affected by two expected ramifications of climate change: rising air temperature and reduced summer streamflow. We investigated the effects of hydroclimatic variability and potential warming on water temperature in the mainstem of the Tualatin River in Oregon. Analysis of US Geological Survey data for the period 1991-2009 shows that the temporal variations of water temperature can be best explained by lagged air temperature and streamflow amount (R = 0.80). Simulations of synthetic ambient warming (1.5℃, 3℃) and streamflow decline (10%, 20%) scenarios using the water quality model CE-QUAL-W2 showed that: (1) summer water temperature increases are between 45 and 60% of ambient temperature increases, and (2) streamflow decline has a noticeable, but minor impact on water temperature. The number of days on which the 7-day running average of water temperature exceeded 20℃ increased substantially during summer months. The spatial extent of reaches that violate the threshold value of temperature also expanded under the combined scenarios. When riparian areas are completely vegetated, water temperatures fall below the threshold level on the majority of summer days. Results of this study would be useful for establishing adaptation strategies in water temperature management under climate change scenarios.
机译：气候多变性和变化会给水质带来巨大压力。水温是河流健康的一项重要指标，直接受到气候变化的两个预期后果的影响：气温升高和夏季河流流量减少。我们调查了俄勒冈州图拉丁河干流的水文气候变化和潜在变暖对水温的影响。对1991年至2009年美国地质调查局数据的分析表明，水温的时间变化可以用滞后的空气温度和水流量来最好地解释（R = 0.80）。使用水质模型CE-QUAL-W2进行的模拟环境变暖（1.5℃，3℃）和流量下降（10％，20％）情景的模拟显示：（1）夏季水温上升了45％至60％。环境温度升高，（2）流量下降对水温有明显影响，但影响较小。在夏季，水温的7天平均运行温度超过20℃的天数显着增加。在组合方案下，违反温度阈值的到达范围也扩大了。当河岸地区完全被植被覆盖后，大部分夏季的水温都低于阈值水平。这项研究的结果对于在气候变化情景下建立水温管理的适应策略很有用。

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