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首页> 外文会议>Water resource management : Science and technology innovation for sustainable development >WATERSHED-BASED RETROSPECTIVE WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT: WEST RIVER, JIULONG RIVER, FUJIAN PROVINCE, PRC
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WATERSHED-BASED RETROSPECTIVE WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT: WEST RIVER, JIULONG RIVER, FUJIAN PROVINCE, PRC

机译：基于流域的回顾性水质评估：中国福建省九龙江西河

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This paper develops a statistical approach to retrospective assessment of the impacts of economic developments affecting a watershed in Fujian Province, People's Republic of China. Using publicly available data, we study times series of several water quality parameters, link them via data analysis to several aspects of economic development, also based on time series, and assess the impact of time-varying economic changes on the watershed's water quality. The methods used include time-series analysis (e.g., ARIMA), Monte Carlo simulations (e.g., bootstrap), Bayesian regression, trend analysis, and non-parametric correlations. We find that, although trend analysis and correlations can be appropriate, we prefer to develop causal associations that set the stage for more complete analyses done at a future stage of the research. Our results use alternative statistical methods, some of which are numerically intensive, to strengthen the study of causal associations. The portfolio of methods we develop yields results that are useful as a first step - hypothesis generation - in the overall assessment of the sustainability of economic development of the Jiulong River Watershed characterized by similar relationships.
机译：本文开发了一种统计方法，用于回顾性评估经济发展对中华人民共和国福建省的影响。我们使用公开可用的数据，研究几个水质参数的时间序列，通过数据分析将它们与经济发展的多个方面联系起来，也基于时间序列，并评估时变经济变化对流域水质的影响。所使用的方法包括时间序列分析（例如ARIMA），蒙特卡洛模拟（例如Bootstrap），贝叶斯回归，趋势分析和非参数相关性。我们发现，尽管趋势分析和相关性可能是适当的，但我们更愿意发展因果关系，从而为将来的研究阶段进行更完整的分析奠定基础。我们的结果使用替代的统计方法，其中一些是数字密集的方法来加强因果关系的研究。我们开发的方法组合产生的结果可作为第一步（即假设生成），可用于以相似关系为特征的九龙江流域经济发展可持续性的总体评估。

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