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Analytical Study of the Impact of China's Trade and FDI on SuB-Sahara African Economies: The Case Study of Angola, Ghana and Sudan

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Abstract

摘要

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Table of Content

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Why the Case Study Countries

1.2 Literature Review

1.2.1 Trade

1.2.2 Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)

1.3 The Relevance of the Study

Chapter 2 STYLIZED FACTS OF CHINA’S TRADE AND INVESTMENT IN AFRICA

2.1 Africa’s Economic and Demographic Characteristics

2.2 Trade

2.2.1 Common Ground for China-Africa Relations

2.2.2 Trade Structure

2.2.3 Composition of Trade

2.2.4 Regional Differentials

2.2.5 Complementary and Competitive Nature

2.2.6 Direct and Indirect Trade

2.3 Investment

2.3.1 Structure and Composition of China’s Investment in Africa

2.3.2 Regional Differentials

2.3.3 Complementary and Competitive Nature

2.3.4 Implications on the Domestic Credit Market

Chapter 3 THE DRIVING FORCE OF CHINA TRADE AND INVESTMENT RELATIONS

3.1 Demand Driven Factors

3.1.1 Demand for Infrastructure

3.1.2 Demand for Natural Resource

3.1.3 Export Markets

3.1.4 Approach to Finance

3.2 Government Policies

3.2.1 Diplomatic Policy

3.2.2 Commercial Policy

3.3 The Role of the Public Sector

3.3.1 State-Owned Enterprises

3.3.2 China Export-Import Bank(Eximbank)

3.3.3 China Development Bank

3.3.4 China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation(SINOSURE)

3.3.5 Commercial Banks

3.4 The Role of the Private Sector

3.4.1 Evolution of Chinese Emigration Policies

3.4.2 Private Entrepreneurs

3.4.3 Private Investors

3.4.4 Private Contractors and Builders

Chapter 4 THE IMPACT OF CHINA’S TRADE AND FDI ON ANGOLA,GHANA AND SUDAN(Qualitative Study)

4.1 Systematic Framework for Comparing China’s Trade and FDI Impact on Angola,Ghana and Sudan

4.2 The Trade Channel

4.2.1 Assessing Direct and Indirect Trade Links Impact

4.2.2 Angola’s Economic Situation

4.2.3 Ghana’s Economic Situation

4.2.4 Sudan’s Economic Situation

4.3 The FDI Channel

4.3.1 China’s FDI Impact on Angola

4.3.2 China’s FDI Impact on Ghana

4.3.3 China’s FDI Impact on Sudan

Chapter 5 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S TRADE AND INVESTMENT IMPACT ON SUB SAHARA AFRICA(Quantitative Study)

5.1 Trade Empirical Analysis

5.1.1 Measuring Revealed Comparative Advantage

5.1.2 Data and Empirical Findings

5.1.3 Inter-Temporal Variation in Revealed Comparative Advantage:2007-2009

5.1.4 Angola-Ghana-Sudan:Sector Comparative Analysis

5.1.5 Spearman Rank Correlation Based Analysis

5.1.6 Finger-Kreinin Export Similarity Index(ESI)

5.2 FDI Empirical Analysis

5.2.1 Theoretical Model

5.2.2 Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)Regression Model

5.2.3 Results and Discussion

5.2.4 Granger Causality Test

Chapter 6 OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF CHINA’S TRADE AND INVESTMENT

6.1 Opportunities and challenges Posed by China’s Interactions

6.1.1 Angola

6.1.2 Ghana

6.1.3 Sudan

6.2 Aggregating Effect on Sub-Saharan Africa

6.2.1 Opportunities Provided by China’s Trade Interactions

6.2.2 Challenges Posed by China’s Trade Interactions

6.2.3 Features of China’s FDI

6.2.4 Opportunities and Challenges Pose by China’s Investment in Sub-Sahara Africa

6.3 The Future of Sub-Saharan Africa-China Economic and Trade Relations

Chapter 7 CONCLUSION:RESEARCH AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Reference

Acknowledgement

Appendix

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摘要

文章主要研究了作为国际贸易中进口方的中国经济的崛起对沙哈拉以南非洲地区的国家尤其是安哥拉、加纳和苏丹国家的经济的影响。最近几年里,这一领域中虽然伴随着相对较小的规模,但可以看到对外直接投资的持续流入,从而使得非洲地区发展成为吸引对外投资尤其是中国对外直接投资的新领域。同样,自1990年以来,中国和沙哈拉以南非洲地区的贸易额也取得了稳健增长。但依照分配方式的不同,可以分为:非洲进口中国产品、中国进口非洲产品、第三方市场以及对外直接投资的形式。但结果表明上述方式对沙哈拉以南非洲国家影响的程度随不同国家以及部门行业呈现一定差异,例如安哥拉和苏丹作为中国的出口国而加纳则表现为对中国的工业产品的进口国。另外,文章表明作为中国和沙哈拉以南非洲贸易和经济关系的主要动力除了自2000年中非合作论坛的建立,还有小规模中国移民潮(私营经济部门)。
  本文采用显示性比较优势理论,来分析上述几个案例国家与中国贸易中的竞争力差异。结果显示2005年起特别优惠关税的实行促进了其对中国的市场的商品的出口。其影响反映在这些欠发达国家增长的出口额和出口商品的稳定的市场方面。
  为了研究中国的FDI和贸易对沙哈拉以南非洲国家的影响,采用2000-2012年的时间序列以最小二乘法建立回归分析。回归结果表明中国的FDI对加纳和苏丹国家的经济增长影响为负向和不显著的。中国的FDI在加纳主要从事一般贸易,而在苏丹主要集中于上游石油资源的开采,这两种情况下对创造就业的贡献很小所以对增加家庭收入帮助不大。但是对安哥拉来说,中国的FDI展现出正的和不显著的影响作用。这结果来源于多样化的应收账款项目涉及石油出口到开发项目中例如有关为劳动力提供就业和收入,进而提高其生活水平的基础设施建设等。
  中国贸易和对外投资的总动态影响在不同国家现出差异,中国贸易对加纳在10%的显著水平上产生了正的和不显著的影响。然而,中国的对外投资对安哥拉产生了负的和不显著的影响,但总的贸易和投资对苏丹的经济增长的影响是正的和不显著的。

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