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后塔利班时代的阿富汗武装冲突的危害评价、驱动因素及解决方案(2001-2014)

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目录

声明

Acknowledgement

Abstract

List of Figures

Table of Contents

Abbreviation

Chapter 1:Introduction

1.1.Background and Significance

1.2.Argument and Research Questions

1.3.Research Methodology

1.4.Structure of the Study

Chapter 2:Literature review

2.2.Definitions and the Concept of Armed-Conflict

2.3.Theoretical Framework

2.3.1.Realist School of Thought

2.3.2.Just War Theory

2.3.3.Strategic Depth Theory

2.4.Case Specific Literature

2.4.1.Consequences of Post-Taliban Armed-Conflict

2.4.2.Causes of Post-Taliban Armed-Conflict

2.4.3.Solutions

Chapter 3:Consequences of Post-Taliban Armed-Conflict

3.1.Introduction

3.2.Framework for Consequences of Post-Taliban armed-conflict

3.3.Political Consequences

3.3.1.Strong Warlords

3.3.2.Strong Taliban Shadow Government

3.3.3.Weak Central Government

3.4.Economic Consequences

3.4.1.Heavily Aid Dependence

3.4.2.The Illicit Economy

3.4.3.Destruction of Infrastructure

3.5.Social Consequences

3.5.1.Education and Poverty

3.5.2.Internal Displacement

3.5.3.Health

Chapter 4:Causes of Post-Taliban Armed-Conflict(2001-2014)

4.1.Introduction

4.2.Framework for the Causes of Post-Taliban Armed-Conflict

4.3.External Causes

4.3.1.Strategic Location

4.3.2.Terrorism

4.4.Internal Causes

4.4.1.The Warlords

Chapter 5:Recommended Solutions

5.2.Internal Perspective

5.3.External Perspective

Chapter 6:Conclusion and Limitation

Bibliography

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摘要

This study intends to examine the post-Taliban armed-conflict consequences,causes and solutions from2001-2014.Afghanistan is one of the most unfortunate countries on earth that has witnessed decades of seemingly endless armed-conflict.Following the9/11tragedy,George W.Bush announced the war on terror and accused the Taliban of providing safe haven for terrorists,making Afghanistan to become the first country targeted by the US-led GWoT.Though several studies have been conducted on the post-Taliban armed-conflict,none has comprehensively addressed the structural consequences,root causes and solutions based on Afghan context.Therefore,it is imperative to investigate this armed-conflict from different angle to present its consequences and the potential causative factors and possible solutions within Afghan context.This thesis argues that the post-Taliban armed-conflict is caused by external and internal factors.The foreign invasion due to the very strategic location of Afghanistan as crossroads of Asia and the presence of terrorists are the external factors while the strong warlords and weak Afghan central government are the internal factors.This thesis also further analyzes the political,economic,and social consequences of the post-Taliban armed-conflict.More importantly,this thesis finds that military-oriented interference is no longer conceivable to work for maintaining peace and stability in Afghanistan.In order to bring durable peace and security to Afghanistan,it is recommended that a realistic peaceful negotiation between the Afghan central government and the Taliban is a possible solution to end the ongoing armed-conflict.Meanwhile,the world,particularly the US,should change their stances towards the Taliban to be more positive.

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