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A dynamic analysis of U.S. biofuels policy impact on land use, greenhouse gas emissions and social welfare .

机译：动态分析美国生物燃料政策对土地使用，温室气体排放和社会福利的影响。

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摘要

Biofuels have been promoted to achieve energy security and as a solution to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. This dissertation presents a framework to examine the extent to which biofuel policies reduce gasoline consumption and GHG emissions and their implications for land allocation among food and fuel crops, food and fuel prices and social welfare. It first develops a stylized model of the food and fuel sectors linked by a limited land availability to produce food and fuel crops. It then analyzes the mechanisms through which biofuel mandates and subsidies affect consumer choices and differ from a carbon tax policy. A dynamic, multi-market equilibrium model, Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (BEPAM), is developed to estimate the welfare costs of these policies and to explore the mix of biofuels from corn and various cellulosic feedstocks that are economically viable over the 2007-2022 period under alternative policies. It distinguishes biofuels produced from corn and several cellulosic feedstocks including crop residues (corn stover and wheat straw) and bioenergy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass). A crop productivity model MISCANMOD is used to simulate the yields of miscanthus and switchgrass. The biofuel policies considered here include the biofuel mandate under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), various biofuel subsidies and import tariffs. The effects of these policies are compared to those of a carbon tax policy that is directly targeted to reduce GHG emissions.;The stylized model shows that a carbon tax can reduce gasoline consumption and lower GHG emissions, and is likely to increase biofuel consumption with a higher elasticity of substitution between gasoline and biofuels and an elastic supply of gasoline. A biofuel mandate would reduce gasoline consumption, but the effects on GHG emissions depend on parameters in the fuel sector, such as the demand elasticity of miles, the elasticity of substitution between gasoline and biofuels and the supply elasticity of gasoline. A biofuel mandate accompanied with subsidies would create incentives to increase the consumption of the blended fuel by lowering its price. Gasoline consumption and GHG emissions would increase under the mandate and subsidy relative to a mandate alone.;The numerical simulation is used to analyze the impacts of biofuel mandate and subsidies relative to a carbon tax. We find a biofuel mandate alone leads to a welfare gain of 0.1% while reducing GHG emissions by 1% relative to a carbon tax of ;We then analyze the implications of imposing import tariffs on biofuels for social welfare and GHG emissions in an open economy considering trade in biofuels. When biofuel mandates and subsidies are in place, the imposition of import tariffs would significantly reduce the imports of sugarcane ethanol by 28% relative to biofuel mandates and subsidies. It also results in a higher GHG intensity of the blended fuel and marginally increases GHG emissions but raises social welfare by 0.01% relative to biofuel mandates and subsidies.
机译：促进生物燃料以实现能源安全，并作为减少交通运输部门温室气体（GHG）排放的解决方案。本文提出了一个框架，以研究生物燃料政策在多大程度上减少了汽油消耗和温室气体排放，以及它们对粮食和燃料作物之间的土地分配，粮食和燃料价格以及社会福利的影响。它首先建立了粮食和燃料部门的程式化模型，该模型通过有限的土地供应来生产粮食和燃料作物。然后，它分析了生物燃料授权和补贴影响消费者选择并与碳税政策不同的机制。建立了动态​​的多市场均衡模型，即生物燃料和环境政策分析模型（BEPAM），以估算这些政策的福利成本，并探索玉米和各种纤维素原料中的生物燃料（在2007-替代政策规定的2022年。它区分了由玉米和几种纤维素原料（包括农作物残留物（玉米秸秆和小麦秸秆）和生物能源作物（芒草和柳枝switch））产生的生物燃料。作物生产力模型MISCANMOD用于模拟桔梗和柳枝the的产量。这里考虑的生物燃料政策包括可再生燃料标准（RFS）下的生物燃料授权，各种生物燃料补贴和进口关税。将这些政策的效果与直接针对减少温室气体排放的碳税政策的效果进行了比较。程式化模型显示，碳税可以减少汽油消耗并降低温室气体排放，并且有可能增加生物燃料的消耗。汽油和生物燃料之间的替代弹性更高，汽油供应弹性更高。使用生物燃料将减少汽油消耗，但是对温室气体排放的影响取决于燃料部门的参数，例如里程需求弹性，汽油和生物燃料之间的替代弹性以及汽油的供应弹性。具有补贴的生物燃料授权将通过降低其价格来刺激混合燃料的消耗。相对于仅一项任务授权，汽油任务和GHG排放将在任务授权和补贴下增加。数值模拟用于分析生物燃料任务授权和补贴相对于碳税的影响。我们发现仅一项生物燃料指令就可以带来0.1％的福利收益，同时相对于5％的碳税可以减少1％的温室气体排放;然后我们在开放经济中分析了对生物燃料征收进口关税对社会福利和温室气体排放的影响生物燃料贸易。实施生物燃料指令和补贴后，征收进口关税将使甘蔗乙醇的进口量相对于生物燃料指令和补贴大幅减少28％。这还导致混合燃料的温室气体排放强度更高，并且温室气体排放量略有增加，但相对于生物燃料强制性规定和补贴，其社会福利提高了0.01％。

著录项

  • 作者

    Chen, Xiaoguang.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;
  • 学科 Alternative Energy.;Climate Change.;Economics Environmental.;Economics Agricultural.;Energy.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 164 p.
  • 总页数 164
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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