The centrality of power in international relations has become the cornerstone of the theory called realism. Yet despite its preeminent place among international relations theories, something is amiss, as in many conflicts the weaker side is emerging victorious.; Four theories have been proposed as to why this is occurring. Andrew Mack argued that the importance of warfare is inversely related to power, and thus strong states had a lesser stake in conflict outcome. T.V. Paul has suggested weak states may deliberately pick fights where by initiating the conflict they can achieve and consolidate their gains quickly. Ivan Arreguin-Toft has argued that if a weak opponent uses an asymmetric strategy, then he will win, regardless of the power of the stronger actor. Finally, Jeff Record has suggested that it is a combination of importance, sacrifice, democratic squeamishness and support by outside powers that can cause weak actors to defeat stronger powers in war.; This study conducts a large-n empirical analysis of these theories, which provides strong empirical support for the following: First, asymmetric warfare outcomes are highly congruent with classical realist theory. The elements of state power articulated by Carr and Morgenthau are statistically and substantively significant in asymmetric warfare outcomes. However in interstate conflict, power is very strongly mitigated by distance. Second, while the importance of a conflict to an actor does impact the conflict outcome, this level of importance is wholly unrelated to power. Third, those who initiate conflict are more likely to win. Fourth, there is an underlying relationship between strategic symmetry and asymmetric conflict outcome. Fifth, democracies fight asymmetric wars exceptionally well. Finally, there is evidence to suggest that the structure of interstate conflicts may differ slightly from those that involve non-state opponents. In this latter class of conflicts, distance may play a less significant role, while strategic symmetry appears to be a more important factor.
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