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Implied transaction costs in agricultural futures markets.

机译:农业期货市场的隐含交易成本。

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摘要

The estimation of costs associated with operating in futures markets is challenging as portions of the costs are implied by prices and many times are not observed. This dissertation deals with measurement of the costs associated with volatility in the market, the risk premium, and the cost of immediate purchase or sale, the liquidity cost. Failure to understand these real transaction costs when liquidating positions may corrupt marketing strategies aimed at managing price risk.;Research has provided mixed results regarding the presence of risk premium in agricultural futures markets. In the first paper we test for the presence of a time-varying risk premium focusing on the properties of the underlying data. Our results show that accounting for the structural break in the 1970s plays a key role in the findings. In contrast to recent research, we find only limited evidence of time-varying risk premium. For a two-month horizon the corn, soybean meal, and hog markets show no signs of a risk premium, while very weak support emerges in live cattle. For the four-month horizon, no evidence of a time-varying risk premium appears in any of the markets.;Estimating liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid-ask spreads are usually not observed. In the second paper we develop a modified Bayesian estimator to measure liquidity costs. Based on an ability to reflect simulated data from Roll's spread model, the modified estimator is precise and works well under conditions found in agricultural futures markets. Conventional serial covariance and absolute price change spread estimators are biased. Using data from live cattle and lean hog contracts, similar performance patterns emerge which result in economically meaningful liquidity cost differences. Results from the modified estimator identify a highly liquid and efficient environment, consistent with the openness, transparency, and volume traded in these markets.;Understanding the determinants of liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets has been hampered by the need to use proxies for the bid-ask spread which are often biased, and by a failure to account for the effect of new information on jointly determined micro-market variables. In the third paper we assess the determinants of liquidity costs using the modified Bayesian bid-ask spread measure that has been shown to be more accurate than traditional measures, and a GMM IV approach to account for joint determination in the micro-structure process. Our results show that total daily volume, volume per transaction, and price volatility are the main determinants of liquidity costs in both hogs and cattle markets. Higher levels of electronic trading consistently lead to lower pit bid-ask spreads particularly in the cattle market, implying the existence of competitive pressure.;The combined research leads to a more comprehensive understanding of market behavior. We show that implied transactions costs do exist, at times are large, and are not easy to estimate, but careful examination of the data and selection of procedures can shed light on their magnitude and patterns of behavior. Accurately measured and understood transaction costs can then be used by traders, exchanges, researchers, and policy makers to develop a better understanding of markets and to make appropriate decisions.
机译:与期货市场操作相关的成本估算具有挑战性,因为部分成本隐含在价格中,而且很多时候都没有观察到。本文主要研究与市场波动相关的成本,风险溢价,立即购买或出售的成本,流动性成本。清算仓位时不了解这些实际交易成本可能会破坏旨在管理价格风险的营销策略。;研究对于农业期货市场中存在风险溢价提供了混合结果。在第一篇论文中,我们测试了潜在风险溢价的存在,重点是基础数据的属性。我们的结果表明,考虑到1970年代的结构性断裂在发现中起着关键作用。与最近的研究相比,我们发现时变风险溢价的证据有限。在两个月的时间内,玉米,豆粕和生猪市场没有出现风险溢价的迹象,而活牛的支撑则非常微弱。对于四个月的时间段,在任何市场上都没有出现时变风险溢价的证据。;估计农产品期货市场中的流动性成本具有挑战性,因为通常不会观察到买卖差价。在第二篇论文中,我们开发了一种改进的贝叶斯估计器来衡量流动性成本。基于能够反映Roll价差模型中模拟数据的能力,改进的估算器非常精确,并且可以在农业期货市场中找到的条件下很好地工作。常规的序列协方差和绝对价格变化价差估计量存在偏差。使用来自活牛和瘦肉猪合同的数据,出现了类似的绩效模式,从而导致了具有经济意义的流动性成本差异。修改后的估算器得出的结果确定了高度流动性和高效率的环境,与这些市场的开放性,透明度和交易量相一致。;理解农产品期货市场中流动性成本的决定因素已因需要使用代理进行出价而受到阻碍。 -询问经常有偏差的价差,并且由于无法考虑新信息对共同确定的微观市场变量的影响。在第三篇论文中,我们使用改进的贝叶斯买价/卖价价差测算方法(比传统测算方法更准确)和GMM IV方法来解释微观结构过程中的联合确定,来评估流动性成本的决定因素。我们的结果表明,日均交易量,每笔交易量以及价格波动是决定生猪和肉牛市场流动性成本的主要因素。电子交易水平的提高始终导致特别是在养牛市场上的底价买卖差价降低,这意味着存在竞争压力。联合研究结果使人们对市场行为有了更全面的了解。我们表明隐含的交易成本确实存在,有时很大,并且不容易估算,但是仔细检查数据和选择程序可以揭示其交易量和行为方式。然后,交易者,交易所,研究人员和政策制定者可以使用经过准确测量和理解的交易成本,以更好地了解市场并做出适当的决策。

著录项

  • 作者

    Frank, Julieta M.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Marketing.;Economics Finance.;Economics Agricultural.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 106 p.
  • 总页数 106
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 贸易经济;农业经济;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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