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Models of crash likelihood and methods of safety improvement at coordinated signalized intersections.

机译：协调信号交叉口的碰撞可能性模型和安全改进方法。

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In this research, the safety impact of arterial signal coordination is investigated. Based on the findings, procedures are proposed to incorporate safety considerations into signal coordination design. In addition, a software tool is developed to facilitate the use of the findings.;Signal coordination has been extensively employed as a tool to optimize an arterial system's mobility performance, commonly measured by the total number of vehicle stops and the time of delays. Although vehicle crashes at signalized intersections have long been recognized as a major safety threat, studies to date have been limited locally to non-coordinated signals or the non-coordinated features of signal timings.;Disaggregate statistical models are developed to identify the influential crash likelihood factors of rear-end and right-angle crashes, the two most frequent types of intersection crashes. To capture the severity factors, the outcomes are further classified into property-damage-only (PDO) and injury-fatal (IF) crashes. The crash likelihoods for each 15-minute interval are used as the response variables of the models. For each 15-minute interval, predictive variables are collected or derived from available data, including the volume, signal timings, and traffic patterns. A traffic pattern characterization is designed to represent each 15-minute interval's arrival pattern.;Various discrete outcome econometric models are used and compared, including multinomial logit model (MNL), multinomial probit model (MNP), nested logit model (NL), and sequential logit model (SL). A SL framework is proposed as the main model. At the first stage, a MNL models crash likelihoods; at the second stage, a logit model models severity.;The key findings are as follows: First, signal coordination significantly affects crash likelihood. Certain traffic arrival patterns are associated with significantly lower crash likelihoods. Second, the dilemma zone contributes in a limited way to the crash likelihoods. Third, adjusted volumes, based on the presented models, were found to be better predictors of crash likelihoods, which indicates that only a portion of all vehicles are highly susceptible to crashes. Fourth, shorter distances from upstream intersection and shorter cycle lengths are associated with lower risk levels of crashes.
机译：在这项研究中，研究了动脉信号协调的安全影响。基于这些发现，提出了将安全考虑纳入信号协调设计的程序。此外，还开发了一种软件工具来促进发现结果的使用。信号协调已广泛用作优化动脉系统的移动性能的工具，通常通过车辆停止的总数和延误的时间来衡量。尽管长期以来人们已意识到信号交叉口的车辆撞车是主要的安全威胁，但迄今为止，研究仅限于对非协调信号或信号正时的非协调特征进行研究;建立了分类统计模型以识别影响撞车的可能性追尾和直角碰撞的最主要因素，这两种最常见的相交碰撞类型。为了捕获严重性因素，将结果进一步分类为仅财产损失（PDO）和致命伤害（IF）崩溃。每个15分钟间隔的崩溃可能性用作模型的响应变量。对于每个15分钟的时间间隔，将从可用数据（包括音量，信号定时和流量模式）中收集或导出预测变量。设计流量模式表征以表示每个15分钟间隔的到达模式。使用并比较了各种离散结果计量经济模型，包括多项式logit模型（MNL），多项式概率模型（MNP），嵌套logit模型（NL）和顺序logit模型（SL）。提出了SL框架作为主要模型。在第一阶段，MNL对崩溃可能性进行建模。在第二阶段，使用logit模型对严重性进行建模。主要发现如下：首先，信号协调会严重影响碰撞可能性。某些交通到达模式与明显降低的崩溃可能性相关。其次，困境区以有限的方式促成崩溃的可能性。第三，根据提出的模型，调整后的体积可以更好地预测发生撞车的可能性，这表明所有车辆中只有一部分极易发生撞车。第四，距上游交叉点的距离较短，周期长度较短，因此发生撞车的风险较低。

著录项

  • 作者

    Li, Wei.;

  • 作者单位

    Purdue University.;

  • 授予单位 Purdue University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 175 p.
  • 总页数 175
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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