This project explores variation in third party efforts to end violent conflict, such as mediation in the former Yugoslavia that resulted in the Dayton Peace Accords. An inquiry into conflict management processes requires the consideration of two questions. First, what explains differences in the occurrence, identity, and method of outside involvement across conflicts? Second, what are the results of this variation on the effectiveness of management efforts? The project illustrates the need for a holistic approach when examining conflict management, as existing research focuses solely on the outcomes of single methods of conflict management (such as mediation), thereby ignoring possible selection effects and foreign policy substitutability.;To understand variation in management efforts, I employ an expected utility model. Third party efforts are the result of policymakers' utility of obtaining a settlement, the expected costs of involvement, and the probability that their efforts will be successful. The third party must consider the conditions under which the disputants will settle to determine the probability of conflict resolution, and they then choose a method of management accordingly. I use the theoretical model to develop hypotheses about the actors that manage conflicts, their commitment to management, and the outcomes of their effort. I test my theoretical argument on an original dataset of conflict management efforts and find significant support for my hypotheses.
展开▼
