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Economic impact of a Mediterranean fruit fly outbreak in Florida.

机译：佛罗里达地中海果蝇疫情的经济影响。

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摘要

We evaluated the potential impact of a Mediterranean fruit fly infestation in Florida. We developed a Bayesian decision framework to analyze the costs of Florida Medfly prevention, detection and eradication programs under early versus late detection scenarios. Modeling results support the hypothesis that optimal trapping density varies across locations and seasons. Because of the low probability of detecting small Medfly populations, the corresponding optimal trapping densities are high, ranging from 82 to 465 traps per ha for McPhail traps and from 9 to 80 traps per ha for Jackson traps. It would be extremely costly to maintain such high trap densities over a wide area. Alternative solutions lie in the search for an increase in pesticide efficacy and an improvement of the trapping technology. Development of more effective female-targeted trapping systems will provide a new dimension to the detection of small Medfly populations.; Partial equilibrium models were also used to investigate welfare changes for the major fruit and vegetable crops under scenarios of a 3 mo, 6 mo, and 1 y quarantine period. Our analysis provides insight regarding the magnitude of welfare changes associated with a Medfly outbreak and/or infestation in Florida. These changes vary across crops, depending on the competitive position of Florida growers for the crop, size of the infested area, and length of quarantine period.; Finally, we tested the effects of changing the entry conditions on the level of Medfly risk in Florida. Our sensitivity-analysis tests showed the increasing number of international passengers entering Florida to be the driving parameter affecting Medfly introduction and establishment in Florida. Additional passenger baggage-clearance costs will be continuously needed to keep pace with the increasing number of international travelers entering Florida. Another way to mitigate the risk of Medfly introduction into Florida is to encourage and support suppression and eradication activities against fruit fly populations in Caribbean basin countries.
机译：我们评估了佛罗里达州地中海果蝇侵染的潜在影响。我们开发了一个贝叶斯决策框架，以分析在早期发现和晚期发现情况下进行佛罗里达州Medfly预防，发现和根除计划的成本。建模结果支持以下假设：最佳诱集密度随位置和季节而变化。由于检测到较小的Medfly种群的可能性较低，因此相应的最佳诱捕密度很高，McPhail诱集器的捕获量为每公顷82至465个捕获物，Jackson诱集器的捕获量为每公顷9至80个捕获物。在宽范围内保持如此高的陷阱密度将非常昂贵。替代解决方案在于寻求提高农药功效和改进捕集技术。开发更有效的以女性​​为目标的诱捕系统将为检测小的地中海蝇种群提供一个新的方面。在3 mo，6 mo和1 y隔离期的情况下，还使用了部分均衡模型来调查主要水果和蔬菜作物的福利变化。我们的分析提供了与佛罗里达州Medfly爆发和/或出没相关的福利变化幅度的见解。这些变化因作物而异，具体取决于佛罗里达州种植者对作物的竞争地位，受灾地区的大小以及检疫期的长短。最后，我们测试了改变入境条件对佛罗里达州Medfly风险水平的影响。我们的敏感性分析测试表明，进入佛罗里达州的国际旅客数量日益增加，这是影响Medfly在佛罗里达州引进和建立的驱动因素。为了跟上越来越多的进入佛罗里达的国际旅客的步伐，将继续需要额外的旅客行李托运费用。减轻将Medfly引入佛罗里达的风险的另一种方法是，鼓励和支持针对加勒比海流域国家果蝇种群的抑制和根除活动。

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  • 作者

    Pierre, Raphael Yves.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Florida.;

  • 授予单位 University of Florida.;
  • 学科 Economics Agricultural.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2007
  • 页码 172 p.
  • 总页数 172
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 农业经济;
  • 关键词

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