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Entry decision for unsolicited Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) highway projects: Real options approach.

机译：不请自来的建运转（BOT）高速公路项目的进入决策：实物期权方法。

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摘要

Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) delivery is becoming prevalent because governments are seeking to leverage their limited resources while the private sector is seeking to expand investment opportunities. One of the main characteristics that Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) delivery method is different from other delivery methods is that governments allow unsolicited proposals by private sector. However, there is little fundamental research on systematic approaches to unsolicited BOT proposals. Research is critical because unsolicited proposals should be viewed from a different perspective than the traditionally solicited BOT projects. In addition, there is no published exploration into decision processes regarding the preparation of the proposal by a promoter.; This research starts with the development of a sequential decision process for an unsolicited BOT project. This sequential decision process consists of three stages: where, what, and when decisions. The where decision should consider the concession policy, environment, local capital market, and country risks. The what decision should consider project type, project content and project length. Finally, the when decision should be carefully made, especially when a promoter considers submitting a proposal to the government.; The main goal of this research is to develop and suggest timing decision models for unsolicited BOT projects, which can provide promoters flexibility to enter BOT markets. So far, research on the entry decision in the BOT area has been focused on "whether" to engage in BOT projects, or in other words, the go/no-go decision. The focus of this research is on " when," or in other words, how to incorporate timing into the decision. In the course of preparing a BOT project investment, providing flexibility in the entry decision benefits private companies. It provides proposers an opportunity to rethink about the proposal decision process and provide robust methods that will lead to a better decision.; In the case of unsolicited BOT projects, two timing decisions are needed in both pre-investment stage and construction stage. A promoter should consider appropriate entry timing when it plans to propose an unsolicited BOT proposal and also consider the investment timing when it invests its money in this project if it is designated as a potential concessionaire. The proposal or investment should be deferred if the benefit of waiting is greater than the cost of waiting, as ups and downs can give more chances to earn money in the financial market. In order to evaluate the value of these entry decisions, real options approach is applied, since the decision of when to propose/invest in an unsolicited BOT project is similar to the exercise of financial call option.; In this research, timing decision models (TDMs) by two different real options approaches are developed: (1) Black's approximation and (2) simulation. TDM by Black's approximation is a simple, closed-form technique in deciding optimal investment timing that can be applied to an infrastructure project. This approach offers sufficient insights to the purpose of the model which provides flexibility to the entry decision although it has a few deficiencies or assumptions. TDM by the simulation approach is a powerful and flexible method. This approach uses market risks as dependent variables which can be assumed to follow the risk-neutral stochastic process. In addition, this is much flexible since multiple variables can be applied at the same time and can be easily modified to accommodate different underlying stochastic processes.; The models are demonstrated through both an illustrative case study and an application to the Incheon International Airport Highway (IIAH) project. The results show that the TDM can evaluate the value of deferment option and can give a promoter an opportunity to consider an appropriate timing flexibility. Various scenarios are developed to test the consistency and robustness of the developed
机译：建造，运营，转让（BOT）交付正变得越来越普遍，因为政府正在寻求利用其有限的资源，而私营部门正在寻求扩大投资机会。 Build-Operate-Transfer（BOT）交付方法与其他交付方法不同的主要特征之一是，政府允许私营部门主动提出建议。但是，很少有针对主动BOT提案的系统方法的基础研究。研究是至关重要的，因为应从与传统上要求的BOT项目不同的角度看待主动提出的建议。另外，没有关于发起人准备提案的决策过程的公开探索。这项研究始于为未经请求的BOT项目开发顺序决策过程。该顺序决策过程包括三个阶段：何处，何处以及何时进行决策。地方决策应考虑特许权政策，环境，当地资本市场和国家风险。什么样的决定应考虑项目类型，项目内容和项目长度。最后，应谨慎地决定何时作出决定，特别是在发起人考虑向政府提交提案时。这项研究的主要目的是为未经请求的BOT项目开发和建议时序决策模型，这可以为发起人提供进入BOT市场的灵活性。到目前为止，关于BOT领域进入决策的研究一直集中在“是否”参与BOT项目，或者换句话说，通过/不通过决策。这项研究的重点是“何时”，换句话说，如何将时间纳入决策。在准备BOT项目投资的过程中，为进入决策提供灵活性将使私营公司受益。它为提议者提供了一个重新思考提议决策过程的机会，并提供了可以做出更好决策的可靠方法。对于未经请求的BOT项目，在投资前阶段和建设阶段都需要两个时间决定。发起人计划提出未经请求的BOT提议时，应考虑适当的进入时机，如果将其资金指定为潜在的特许经营者，则应考虑其在该项目中进行投资时的投资时机。如果等待的好处大于等待的成本，则应推迟提案或投资，因为起伏不定会给金融市场更多的赚钱机会。为了评估这些进入决策的价值，采用实物期权方法，因为何时提议/投资未经请求的BOT项目的决定与行使金融看涨期权相似。在这项研究中，通过两种不同的实物期权方法开发了时序决策模型（TDM）：( 1）布莱克逼近法和（2）仿真。 Black近似的TDM是一种简单的封闭式技术，用于确定可应用于基础结构项目的最佳投资时机。这种方法为模型的目的提供了足够的见解，尽管存在一些缺陷或假设，但该模型为进入决策提供了灵活性。通过仿真方法进行TDM是一种强大而灵活的方法。这种方法使用市场风险作为因变量，可以假设其遵循风险中性随机过程。另外，这是非常灵活的，因为可以同时应用多个变量，并且可以轻松地对其进行修改以适应不同的基础随机过程。通过示例性案例研究和在仁川国际机场高速公路（IIAH）项目中的应用，对模型进行了演示。结果表明，TDM可以评估延期选择权的价值，并可以为发起人提供考虑适当的计时灵活性的机会。开发了各种方案来测试开发的一致性和健壮性

著录项

  • 作者

    Lee, Sangjoo.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Colorado at Boulder.$bCivil Engineering.;

  • 授予单位 University of Colorado at Boulder.$bCivil Engineering.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2007
  • 页码 264 p.
  • 总页数 264
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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