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Interpreting global energy and emission scenarios: Methods for understanding and communicating policy insights.

机译：解释全球能源和排放情景：理解和交流政策见解的方法。

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Energy scenarios for the 21st century powerfully inform perceptions and expectations in the minds of energy investors, consumers, and policy-makers. Scenarios that stabilize global warming call for large-scale energy technology transitions, fueling debates about the relative roles for a range of technologies including nuclear power, carbon sequestration, biofuels, solar power, and efficient end-use devices. In the last decade, hundreds of scenarios have been published by more than a dozen research teams using different models, baselines and mitigation targets. Despite the efforts to summarize findings in a few major assessments, a gap in understanding remains at a critical science-policy juncture between scenario analysts and the audiences their work is designed to serve. Addressing the issue requires an interdisciplinary approach that incorporates knowledge and methods from the fields of energy engineering, economics, climate science, and policy analysis.; This research applies two analytical techniques to investigate the effects of an imposed climate policy on the underlying energy system. The first disentangles the effect of a policy intervention on key demographic and technology drivers of fossil fuel use, and the second decomposes reductions in emissions by specific energy technology types. Because the techniques may be applied to any energy scenario with technology detail, this study demonstrates their application to ten sample stabilization scenarios from three leading models. Revealing the importance of data and assumptions overlooked or not well disclosed in the past, the results highlight an implausibly high pressure on energy supply innovations while the potential for energy efficiency improvements is systematically underestimated. The findings are significant to both scenario analysts and the decision-makers in public policy and private investment who are influenced by their work.
机译：21世纪的能源情景在能源投资者，消费者和政策制定者的思想中强有力地传达了看法和期望。稳定全球变暖的场景要求大规模的能源技术转型，从而引发了人们对包括核能，固碳，生物燃料，太阳能和高效终端设备在内的一系列技术的相对作用的争论。在过去十年中，十几个研究团队使用不同的模型，基准和缓解目标发布了数百种方案。尽管努力总结一些主要评估中的发现，但在情景分析人员和其工作旨在服务的受众之间，在关键的科学政策关头仍然存在理解上的分歧。解决该问题需要一种跨学科的方法，该方法应结合能源工程，经济学，气候科学和政策分析领域的知识和方法。这项研究运用两种分析技术来研究气候政策对基础能源系统的影响。第一个解释了政策干预对化石燃料使用的主要人口和技术驱动因素的影响，第二个分解了按特定能源技术类型的减排量。因为该技术可以应用于具有技术细节的任何能源方案，所以本研究证明了它们在来自三种领先模型的十种样品稳定方案中的应用。结果揭示了过去被忽视或未充分披露的数据和假设的重要性，结果突显了能源供应创新的巨大压力，而系统地提高了能效的潜力却被低估了。这些发现对受其工作影响的情景分析人员以及公共政策和私人投资决策者均具有重要意义。

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