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Managing demand risk via supply contracts: A tactical outlook for operational excellence.

机译：通过供应合同管理需求风险：卓越运营的战术前景。

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摘要

In recent years, supply contracts have gained considerable attention from both practical and theoretical perspectives as they are powerful instruments in managing various sources of uncertainty inherently present in supply chains. In this research, we particularly focus on demand risk, management of which is quite important in capital-intensive industries. We consider various forms of supply contracts and investigate the optimal and close-to-optimal policies for both tactical (i.e., capacity) and operational (i.e, inventory) decisions.; In the first part of the dissertation, we investigate the optimal inventory decisions under two contract structures. We first consider the dual supply problem and analytically explain the changes in the optimal policy parameters with respect to problem parameters using certain functional properties. We then investigate the more general multiple supply problem and show that this problem is structurally equivalent to the quantity flexibility contracts commonly used in practice. We show that the optimal solution can be found with the same method in both settings. This result is also a meta-theorem explaining many well-known results in the inventory management literature, such as the optimality of the base-stock policy in the single supply problem. In the second part of the dissertation, using the preliminary results of the first part, we explore the interaction of capacity and inventory decisions. We first consider a dual supply scenario and analytically characterize the optimal capacity reservation policy, which is computationally intractable due to high dimensions of state and decision variables. As an alternative, we propose a plausible and managerially insightful policy, and compare its performance with the optimal solution as well as an analytical lower bound on the optimal cost. Finally, we consider a contract with flexible terms, inspired by options used in the finance literature. In particular, we focus on a supply scenario in the semiconductor industry, where the demand for end-products is highly uncertain due to factors such as the rapid changes in technology and customer expectations, shortening life-cycles, and high competition. We analyze the advantages of using this flexible contract to manage demand risk in such an environment.
机译：近年来，由于供应合同是管理供应链中固有的各种不确定性来源的有力工具，因此从实践和理论两个角度都受到了相当大的关注。在这项研究中，我们特别关注需求风险，需求风险的管理在资本密集型行业中非常重要。我们考虑各种形式的供应合同，并针对战术（即产能）和运营（即库存）决策研究最优和接近最优的政策。在论文的第一部分，我们研究了两种合同结构下的最优库存决策。我们首先考虑双重供给问题，并使用某些功能属性分析性地解释最优政策参数相对于问题参数的变化。然后，我们研究了更一般的多重供应问题，并表明该问题在结构上等同于实践中常用的数量弹性合同。我们表明，可以在两种设置中使用相同的方法找到最佳解决方案。这个结果也是一个元定理，它解释了库存管理文献中的许多众所周知的结果，例如，单一供应问题中基础库存策略的最优性。在论文的第二部分，利用第一部分的初步结果，我们探讨了产能和库存决策之间的相互作用。我们首先考虑双重供应方案，并分析性地描述最佳容量预留策略，由于状态和决策变量的维数较大，因此该策略在计算上难以处理。作为替代方案，我们提出了一个可行且管理上有见地的政策，并将其性能与最佳解决方案进行比较，并分析最佳成本的分析下限。最后，我们考虑具有灵活条款的合同，其灵感来自金融文献中使用的期权。特别是，我们关注半导体行业的供应情况，由于诸如技术和客户期望的快速变化，生命周期缩短和竞争激烈等因素，最终产品的需求高度不确定。我们分析了在这种环境下使用这种灵活合同管理需求风险的优势。

著录项

  • 作者

    Yazlali, Ozgur.;

  • 作者单位

    Stanford University.;

  • 授予单位 Stanford University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Industrial.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 87 p.
  • 总页数 87
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 一般工业技术;
  • 关键词

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