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Economic impact of climate change on African agriculture.

机译：气候变化对非洲农业的经济影响。

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Using a cross sectional dataset of over 9,500 farms in Senegal, Niger, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Cameroon, Zambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe, this dissertation explores using the Ricardian approach the likely economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Africa. The results show that the elasticity of net revenue with respect to temperature and precipitation is -1.3 and 0.4, respectively. The elasticity of net revenue with respect to temperature is -1.6 for dryland farms but 0.5 for irrigated farms. The elasticity of net revenue with respect to precipitation is 0.5 for dryland farms but only 0.1 for irrigated farms. Three climate change scenarios from Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model or Atmosphere/Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) reveal that African net revenues may rise by up to {dollar}97 billion if future warming is mild and wet but that net revenues would fall by up to {dollar}48 billion if future climates are hot and dry. Dryland farms would be affected the most by either beneficial or harmful scenarios. Irrigated farms are relatively resilient to climate change.; The dissertation also addresses a methodological deficiency in that previous Ricardian analyses of agriculture either omitted, or treated, irrigation as though it is exogenous. A choice model of irrigation is developed in the context of a Ricardian model of cropland. An analysis is undertaken of how climate affects the decision to employ irrigation and then how climate affects the net revenues of dryland and irrigated land. This Ricardian "selection" model, using a modified Heckman model, is more appropriate for modeling irrigation and the endogeneity of irrigation.; Finally, the dissertation compares how well satellite versus weather station measurements of climate predicts agricultural performance. Weather stations entail sporadic observations that require interpolation where observations are missing. In contrast, satellites have trouble measuring some ground phenomenon such as precipitation but they provide complete spatial coverage of various parameters over a landscape. The results suggest that satellites provide promising measures of temperature but that ground station data may still be preferred for measuring precipitation in rural settings.
机译：利用塞内加尔，尼日尔，布基纳法索，加纳，埃及，埃塞俄比亚，肯尼亚，喀麦隆，赞比亚，南非和津巴布韦的9,500多个农场的横断面数据集，本论文使用里卡多方法探讨了气候变化对气候变化的潜在经济影响。非洲农业部门。结果表明，净收入相对于温度和降水的弹性分别为-1.3和0.4。相对于温度而言，旱地农场的净收入弹性为-1.6，而灌溉农场的弹性为0.5。旱地农场相对于降水的净收入弹性为0.5，而灌溉农场仅为0.1。大气/海洋总环流模型或大气/海洋全球气候模型（AOGCM）的三种气候变化情景显示，如果未来的变暖和潮湿，非洲的净收入可能会增加970亿美元，但净收入将下降如果未来的气候炎热干燥，则高达480亿美元。旱地农场受到有利或有害情况的影响最大。灌溉农场对气候变化具有相对的抵抗力。论文还解决了方法学上的不足，因为以前的里卡德对农业的分析要么是灌溉，要么是外来灌溉，但没有经过处理。在农田的李嘉图模型的背景下发展了灌溉的选择模型。分析了气候如何影响采用灌溉的决策，然后气候如何影响旱地和灌溉土地的净收入。使用改进的Heckman模型的Ricardian“选择”模型更适合于建模灌溉和灌溉的内生性。最后，本文比较了卫星和气象站的气候测量对农业绩效的预测效果。气象站需要零星的观测，需要在缺少观测的地方进行插值。相比之下，卫星在测量某些地面现象（如降水）时会遇到麻烦，但它们提供了景观中各种参数的完整空间覆盖。结果表明，卫星提供了有希望的温度测量方法，但地面站数据仍可能是测量农村地区降水的首选方法。

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