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首页> 外文学位 >The Definitive Reform. How the 1996 Electoral Reform Triggered the Demise of the PRI's Dominant-Party Regime.
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The Definitive Reform. How the 1996 Electoral Reform Triggered the Demise of the PRI's Dominant-Party Regime.

机译：最终的改革。 1996年选举改革如何触发PRI的统治党政权的灭亡。

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摘要

This research offers a new explanation of the demise of the authoritarian dominant-party regime led by the PRI in Mexico from 1929 to 2000. I claim that this was largely triggered by the electoral reform of 1996. The reform changed the structure of incentives for many PRI faction leaders at the federal and state level. This started the rapid erosion of the PRI's elite unity, leading to the migration of experienced cadres and the valuable clientelistic machines under their control to other parties. This, in turn, reduced the clientelistic advantage that the PRI had enjoyed for decades, leading to its eventual defeat in the 2000 presidential election.;But if the 1996 electoral reform was the main catalyst of the demise of the authoritarian regime led by the PRI, then why this party proposed, actively promoted and approved it? On the one hand, I argue that President Ernesto Zedillo proposed the reform in an attempt to reduce the recurrent post-electoral conflicts that characterized Mexico's state and municipal elections between 1988 and 1994. Zedillo aimed to eradicate this source of political instability by achieving an electoral reform that would modify the incentives of the opposition parties in such a way that they abandoned their extra-legal tactics in favor of electoral competition and the legal mechanisms to settle any potential dispute. The PRI, on the other hand, supported the reform not only because certain parts of it significantly benefited the party, but also because the president still had the institutional and extra-institutional powers to decisively influence the political future of most Priista. This allowed Zedillo to convince and, if necessary, force the members of the PRI to approve those aspects of the reform that went against the official party's interests.;I test my argument by combining archival research, interviews and the statistical analysis of two original datasets constructed for this project. My results indicate that the 1996 electoral reform increased at least 400% the probability of defections of high-ranked faction leaders from the PRI, even after controlling for alternative explanations. Additionally, the empirical results indicate that these defections had a significant impact on the PRI's electoral performance. For instance, this party lost almost twice as many votes in those gubernatorial races where it had suffered the defection of a high-ranked Priista than in the states where the PRI remained united.
机译：这项研究为PRI在1929年至2000年间在墨西哥领导的专制统治政权的灭亡提供了新的解释。我声称这在很大程度上是由1996年选举改革引发的。改革改变了许多人的激励结构联邦和州一级的PRI派系领导人。这开始使PRI的精英团结迅速受到侵蚀，导致经验丰富的干部和在他们控制下的有价值的客户服务机器向其他方的迁移。反过来，这削弱了PRI数十年来享有的客户优势，最终导致其在2000年总统大选中失败。但是，如果1996年的选举改革是PRI领导的威权政权灭亡的主要催化剂，那么为什么这个党提出，积极推动和批准呢？一方面，我认为总统埃内斯托·塞迪略（Ernesto Zedillo）提出了这项改革，以减少1988年至1994年之间墨西哥州和市政选举的反复选举后冲突。泽迪洛（Zedillo）旨在通过实现选举来消除这种政治不稳定的根源这项改革将改变反对党的动机，以至于他们放弃了法律以外的策略，而转向选举竞争和解决任何潜在争端的法律机制。另一方面，PRI不仅支持该改革，因为它的某些部分极大地使该党受益，而且因为总统仍然具有决定性地影响大多数Priista的政治前途的机构和机构外权力。这使Zedillo能够说服并在必要时迫使PRI成员批准那些违背官方政党利益的改革方面。我通过结合档案研究，访谈和两个原始数据集的统计分析来检验我的论点。为该项目建造。我的结果表明，即使在控制了其他解释之后，1996年的选举改革也至少增加了PRI叛逃高级派别领导人的可能性400％。此外，实证结果表明，这些缺陷对PRI的选举表现产生了重大影响。例如，在遭受高级普里斯塔（Priista）叛变的州长竞选中，该政党的选票几乎是普林斯统一的州的两倍。

著录项

  • 作者

    Garrido de Sierra, Sebastian.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Los Angeles.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Los Angeles.;
  • 学科 Political Science General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 191 p.
  • 总页数 191
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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