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Living as a debtor in a world of sudden stops: The roles of exposure to trade and commitment.

机译:在突然停止的世界中作为债务人生活:承担贸易和承担义务的作用。

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摘要

Financial stability is an important public policy objective. Promoting stability requires preventing "sudden stops" in capital flows, which are triggered by the unexpected disappearance of foreign financing. This dissertation presents three essays on the causes and the consequences of sudden stops.; The first essay provides new evidence on the causal connection between lack of exposure to commercial trade and proclivity to sudden stops. On the theoretical front, it is shown how commercial trade reduces the probability of crises in financially constrained economies. This proposition is tested using "gravity estimates," which are based on countries' geographic characteristics, as appropriate instruments for trade. The results indicate that a 10 percentage point decrease in the trade to GDP ratio increases the probability of a sudden stop between 30% and 40%.; Sudden stops, when they happen, are typically accompanied of sharp output contractions and subsequent recoveries. Therefore, these crises are associated with an increase in output volatility. If exposure to trade reduces the probability of sudden stops, it should also mitigate output volatility through this route. This counteracts the destabilizing effects of exposure to trade associated with terms-of-trade shocks. The second essay tests what is the net effect of exposure to trade on output volatility. It presents new empirical evidence suggesting that it is stabilizing. Additional evidence is presented showing that this effect comes (at least in part) through the financial stability channel.; The third essay explores the effect of sudden stops on countries' incentives to secure the property rights of lenders, in the setting of a simple general equilibrium model of sovereign default and direct creditor sanctions. In the benchmark model debt default is prevented through the design of suitable incentive-compatible contracts and, therefore, the sanctions for default are never exercised. Thus, it is in the debtor countries interest for sanctions to be as dire as possible, as their only effect is to increase the commitment to repay and raise creditworthiness. The benchmark model is modified allowing sovereign defaults to happen in equilibrium, as they do in practice. In that context, it is shown that debt default might be the optimal response to a sudden stop. Therefore, sanctions can be exercised and the debtor weighs this in when choosing its level of commitment through either auto-imposed sanctions or via the level of debt. The welfare analysis shows that it is in the debtor countries interest not to overcommit in order to increase its creditworthiness, and that excessive borrowing might be a response to the risk of sudden stops.
机译:财务稳定是一项重要的公共政策目标。促进稳定需要防止资本流动的“突然停止”,这是由外国融资的意外消失引起的。本文针对突然停车的原因和后果提出了三篇论文。第一篇文章提供了新的证据,证明了缺乏商业贸易机会与突然停止的倾向之间的因果关系。在理论方面,它表明了商业贸易如何减少受金融约束的经济体发生危机的可能性。该提议使用“重力估计”进行检验,重力估计基于国家的地理特征,作为适当的贸易手段。结果表明,贸易占国内生产总值的比率下降10个百分点,则突然停止的可能性增加了30%至40%。突然停止时,通常会伴随着急剧的产出收缩和随后的恢复。因此,这些危机与产出波动性增加有关。如果贸易风险降低了突然止损的可能性,那么它也应通过此途径减轻产出波动。这抵消了与贸易条件冲击相关的贸易风险的不稳定影响。第二篇文章测试了贸易敞口对产出波动的净影响。它提供了新的经验证据,表明它正在稳定。另有证据表明,这种影响(至少部分地)来自金融稳定渠道。第三篇文章探讨了在建立一个简单的主权违约和直接债权人制裁的一般均衡模型的情况下,突如其来的停顿对国家激励机制以确保贷方财产权的影响。在基准模型中,通过设计适当的激励兼容合同来防止债务违约,因此,永不行使对违约的制裁。因此,使制裁尽可能地可怕,符合债务国的利益,因为制裁的唯一作用是增加偿还承诺并提高信誉。对基准模型进行了修改,允许主权违约发生在实际中,就像在实践中那样。在这种情况下,表明债务违约可能是对突然停止的最佳反应。因此,可以实行制裁,债务人在通过自动制裁或债务水平来选择其承诺水平时可以权衡这一点。福利分析表明,为了提高其信誉度,不要过度承诺债务国的利益,而且过度借贷可能是对突然停止风险的一种反应。

著录项

  • 作者

    Cavallo, Eduardo Alfredo.;

  • 作者单位

    Harvard University.;

  • 授予单位 Harvard University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 154 p.
  • 总页数 154
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;
  • 关键词

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