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Embracing uncertainty: Scenario planning for climate change-security challenges and opportunities.

机译：拥抱不确定性：应对气候变化的方案规划-安全挑战和机遇。

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摘要

The relationship between climate change and security represents a subset of the growing field of environmental security, and a new area of multidisciplinary research. Although climate change is now discussed in U.S. national security policy and doctrine, scholarly research linking climate change and security has been debated, and has not yet adequately dealt with high levels of uncertainty in the associated complex socio-environmental systems. Scenario planning represents a strategic planning methodology with roots in post World War II military planning. Since the mid-1980s, scenario planning has been employed extensively in the business community, and recently has been applied to complex socio-environmental problems. Scenario planning is well suited for studying highly uncertain problems. This dissertation seeks to understand how scenario planning can be applied to understand and plan in light of climate change-security challenges and opportunities. The dissertation examines past climate change-security scenarios, including interviews with scenario participants and practitioners. A case study examines a scenario planning exercise that employs a novel method, foresight scenario planning, to understand climate change-security issues in Vietnam. The findings suggest that foresight scenario planning provides a simple, effective method to understand and plan through uncertainty related to climate change-security problems, and can be useful for conducting multilevel scenario planning and identifying surprise. The dissertation contributes to a small body of scenario planning theory, and also assesses foresight scenario planning methods, proposing improvements for future scenario planning exercises that employ this simple but useful strategic planning tool.
机译：气候变化与安全之间的关系代表了环境安全不断发展的领域的一个子集，也是多学科研究的新领域。尽管现在在美国国家安全政策和学说中讨论了气候变化，但有关气候变化与安全的学术研究仍在辩论中，尚未充分解决相关的复杂社会环境系统中的高度不确定性。方案规划是一种战略规划方法，其方法源于第二次世界大战后的军事规划。自1980年代中期以来，方案规划已在商业界广泛采用，最近已应用于复杂的社会环境问题。方案规划非常适合研究高度不确定的问题。本文力求了解如何根据气候变化-安全挑战和机遇，将情景规划应用于理解和规划。本文研究了过去的气候变化安全情景，包括对情景参与者和实践者的采访。案例研究检查了情景规划练习，该演习采用了一种新颖的方法，即具有远见的情景规划，以了解越南的气候变化-安全问题。研究结果表明，前瞻性情景规划提供了一种简单有效的方法，可以通过与气候变化-安全问题相关的不确定性来理解和进行规划，并且对于进行多级情景规划和识别意外情况可能很有用。本文对情景规划理论的发展做出了很小的贡献，同时也评估了远景情景规划方法，为使用这种简单但有用的战略规划工具的未来情景规划活动提出了改进建议。

著录项

  • 作者

    Read, Mark R.;

  • 作者单位

    The Pennsylvania State University.;

  • 授予单位 The Pennsylvania State University.;
  • 学科 Geography.;Military studies.;Political science.;Climate change.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 187 p.
  • 总页数 187
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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