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Robust estimation of reliability in the presence of multiple failure modes.

机译：在存在多种故障模式的情况下，对可靠性进行可靠的估计。

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摘要

In structural design, every component or system needs to be tested to ascertain that it satisfies the desired safety levels. Due to the uncertainties associated with the operating conditions, design parameters, and material systems, this task becomes complex and expensive. Typically these uncertainties are defined using random, interval or fuzzy variables, depending on the information available. Analyzing components or systems in the presence of these different forms of uncertainty increases the computational cost considerably due to the iterative nature of these algorithms. Therefore, one of the objectives of this research was to develop methodologies that can efficiently handle multiple forms of uncertainty.; Most of the work available in the literature about uncertainty analysis deals with the estimation of the safety of a structural component based on a particular performance criterion. Often an engineering system has multiple failure criteria, all of which are to be taken into consideration for estimating its safety. These failure criteria are often correlated, because they depend on the same uncertain variables and the accuracy of the estimations highly depend on the ability to model the joint failure surface. The evaluation of the failure criteria often requires computationally expensive finite element analysis or computational fluid dynamics simulations. Therefore, this work also focuses on using high fidelity models to efficiently estimate the safety levels based on multiple failure criteria.; The use of high fidelity models to represent the limit-state functions (failure criteria) and the joint failure surface facilitates reduction in the computational cost involved, without significant loss of accuracy. The methodologies developed in this work can be used to propagate various types of uncertainties through systems with multiple nonlinear failure modes and can be used to reduce prototype testing during the early design process.; In this research, fast Fourier transforms-based reliability estimation technique has been developed to estimate system reliability. The algorithm developed solves the convolution integral in parts over several disjoint regions spanning the entire design space to estimate the system reliability accurately. Moreover, transformation techniques for non-probabilistic variables are introduced and used to efficiently deal with mixed variable problems. The methodologies, developed in this research, to estimate the bounds of reliability are the first of their kind for a system subject to multiple forms of uncertainty.
机译：在结构设计中，需要对每个组件或系统进行测试，以确保其满足所需的安全级别。由于与操作条件，设计参数和材料系统相关的不确定性，此任务变得复杂且昂贵。通常，这些不确定性是使用随机，区间或模糊变量定义的，具体取决于可用的信息。由于这些算法的迭代性质，在存在这些不同形式的不确定性的情况下分析组件或系统会大大增加计算成本。因此，本研究的目标之一是开发可以有效处理多种形式不确定性的方法。文献中有关不确定性分析的大部分工作都基于特定的性能标准来评估结构部件的安全性。工程系统通常具有多个故障准则，在评估其安全性时应考虑所有这些准则。这些失效标准通常是相关的，因为它们取决于相同的不确定变量，并且估计的准确性高度取决于对关节失效表面进行建模的能力。对失效标准的评估通常需要计算量大的有限元分析或计算流体动力学模拟。因此，这项工作还着重于使用高保真度模型基于多个失效标准来有效地评估安全等级。使用高保真度模型来表示极限状态函数（失效准则）和联合失效面有助于减少所涉及的计算成本，而不会显着降低精度。这项工作中开发的方法可用于通过具有多个非线性故障模式的系统传播各种类型的不确定性，并可用于减少早期设计过程中的原型测试。在这项研究中，已经开发了基于快速傅里叶变换的可靠性估计技术来估计系统可靠性。所开发的算法解决了跨越整个设计空间的多个不相交区域中部分的卷积积分，从而准确地估计了系统可靠性。此外，引入了非概率变量的转换技术，并将其用于有效处理混合变量问题。在这项研究中开发的用于估计可靠性范围的方法，对于受多种形式不确定性影响的系统而言，尚属首次。

著录项

  • 作者

    Adduri, Phani R.;

  • 作者单位

    Wright State University.;

  • 授予单位 Wright State University.;
  • 学科 Statistics.; Engineering Mechanical.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 136 p.
  • 总页数 136
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 统计学;机械、仪表工业;
  • 关键词

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