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首页> 外文学位 >The creation and application of two innovative Real-Time Delphi and Cross-Impact simulation approaches to forecast the future: Forecasting high-speed broadband developments for the state of Hawai`i.
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The creation and application of two innovative Real-Time Delphi and Cross-Impact simulation approaches to forecast the future: Forecasting high-speed broadband developments for the state of Hawai`i.

机译：两种创新的实时Delphi和交叉碰撞仿真方法的创建和应用来预测未来：预测夏威夷州的高速宽带发展。

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摘要

Technology development is moving rapidly and our dependence on information services is growing. Building a broadband infrastructure that can support future demand and change is therefore critical to social, political, economic and technological developments. It is often up to local policy makers to find the best solutions to support this demand and development.;Because policy making is inherently a long-range planning exercise optimal solutions are best identified using methodologies that deal with planning for alternative futures. Futures methodologies identify, study, and plan for alternative futures, and are therefore a good fit to increase the probabilities of success when developing telecommunication policies.;The goals of this study were to contribute to methodology in the futures field by evolving and extending existing methods, to create an expert based model for future broadband related developments in Hawaii, and to develop recommendations for future Hawaii broadband developments.;The study took advantage of recent technological developments to evolve and extend well known futures studies methodologies and develop novel Real-Time Delphi and Cross-Impact simulation software. Next, future broadband related trends and events were identified via interviews with high level telecommunications experts. These trends and events were then used as input in the Real-Time Delphi software for expert forecasting. The output from the forecasts were used as input to the Cross-Impact simulator, creating and exploring models of possible, probable and desirable futures for broadband in Hawaii. The final results were recommendations of specific focal areas for broadband developments in Hawaii.
机译：技术发展迅速，我们对信息服务的依赖也在增长。因此，建设能够支持未来需求和变化的宽带基础设施对于社会，政治，经济和技术发展至关重要。通常，取决于当地的决策者，以找到最佳的解决方案来支持这种需求和发展。因为决策本身就是一项长期的计划工作，所以最好使用处理替代性期货计划的方法来确定最佳解决方案。期货方法论可以识别，研究和计划替代性期货，因此非常适合于在制定电信政策时增加成功的可能性。这项研究的目标是通过发展和扩展现有方法为期货领域的方法论做出贡献，为夏威夷未来的宽带相关发展建立一个基于专家的模型，并为夏威夷未来的宽带发展提出建议。；该研究利用了最新的技术发展来发展和扩展知名的期货研究方法，并开发新颖的实时德尔福和Cross-Impact模拟软件。接下来，通过与高级电信专家的访谈来确定未来与宽带相关的趋势和事件。然后将这些趋势和事件用作Real-Time Delphi软件的输入，以进行专家预测。预测的输出用作交叉影响模拟器的输入，从而创建和探索夏威夷宽带潜在，可能和理想的未来模型。最终结果是针对夏威夷宽带发展的特定重点领域的建议。

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  • 作者

    Bergo, Rolv Alexander.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Hawai'i at Manoa.;

  • 授予单位 University of Hawai'i at Manoa.;
  • 学科 Information Technology.;Technical Communication.;Information Science.;Multimedia Communications.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 280 p.
  • 总页数 280
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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