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Nutrition and Food Security in a Changing Climate: Methods for predicting household coping strategy use and Food Security in the Ethiopian Context.

机译：气候变化中的营养和粮食安全：在埃塞俄比亚语境下预测家庭应对策略使用和粮食安全的方法。

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摘要

Climate change affects households, villages, countries, and regions worldwide. The populations and individuals most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change live in the poorest and least developed regions of the world, engage in climate-dependent livelihoods and have few assets. Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world, with a history of climate- and politically-induced famines, has 80 percent of its population engaged in rain-fed agricultural livelihoods. This dissertation sought to determine empirically how individuals and households in Ethiopia cope with climate change impacts on their livelihoods and food security. Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world, where 80 percent of the population engages in rain-fed agricultural livelihoods, has a history of climate- and politically-induced famines.;This dissertation consists of three studies. The first two studies were qualitative primary interviews where recruitment, consent, structured interviews, and protocols were approved by the UCLA Institution Review Board, but used mixed methods including t-tests and Fisher's exact tests in the analysis. The third study was quantitative and used panel data from seven waves of the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (1994-2009).;The first study involved 59 rural-to-urban migrants in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Findings indicated that migration for some individuals was induced due to having insufficient tangible and intangible assets as a result of decreased or variable crop-yields, forced sale of livestock, sale of other assets, or need for additional income. Small plots of land, low levels of education, fertilizer loans, and tax debts were additional contributors to low asset levels. Migration for others was induced by volition or the desire to increase social or economic status with better jobs or education. Individuals who migrated by volition often reported having sufficient land, crop-yields, and food. Few individuals had access to safety-net programs and those who did reported insufficient or undesired provisions.;The second study involved 35 heads or proxy-heads of household in three rural villages. Findings indicated that households cope with asset shortfalls and climate-change with a handful of strategies including selling animals, eating other less-preferred foods, decreasing the amount eaten, and selling other assets. Nearly all interviewees worried about money, land, and food, and needed more money, land, and animals. Climate change was reported to affect crop-yields. Ethiopia is a three-meal per day culture. In good-food months, adults and children eat three meals per day. In bad-food months, both adults and children eat fewer meals, and adults eat fewer meals than children to preserve child-nutritional status. Adults from households with the least amount of land and the most household members eat the fewest number of meals in bad months. Only in the worst times did individuals report anyone migrating from the household though most reported a family member migrating in the past. Some believe they will migrate in the future, primarily for land or education.;The third study used longitudinal panel data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey, covering 1,477 households over 20 years. Analytical methods involved hierarchical linear modeling of bivariate and multivariate relationships between outcome and predictor variables and the elaboration model to test the modification of irrigation on rainfall-adequacy and food-security status. Hierarchical linear modeling tests how much of the observed relationship can be attributed to household, village, region, and time-specific aspects.;Findings indicated that households continually vary in their food-security status over time. Where a household is located, its geography, and time were the most important predictors of household food-security status, and both are indicators of climate effects. Irrigation also demonstrated improvements in food-security status beyond rainfall-adequacy alone, indicating that while climate was an important predictor of food security, irrigation modifies the relationship, and modifies the impact of geography or household-location. Household crop storage improved food-security status, while free-food distribution and household assets had no impact. Household assets however, do influence household resilience, the type, and choice of coping-strategies households' use.;The findings of these three studies provide new and supporting knowledge on coping-strategy use and food-security status over time in Ethiopia, demonstrating the influence of climate change as well as possible causes of migration in Ethiopia. These studies also confirm current literature describing the inadequate coverage and assistance of Ethiopia's safety-net program, guiding the way for improved pro-poor and climate-sensitive policy recommendations.
机译：气候变化影响着全世界的家庭，村庄，国家和地区。最容易受到气候变化负面影响的人口和个人生活在世界上最贫穷和最不发达的地区，从事依赖气候的生计，资产很少。埃塞俄比亚是世界上最贫穷的国家之一，有着因气候和政治原因造成的饥荒的历史，其80％的人口从事雨养农业生计。本文力图从经验上确定埃塞俄比亚的个人和家庭如何应对气候变化对其生计和粮食安全的影响。埃塞俄比亚是世界上最贫穷的国家之一，该国80％的人口从事靠雨水灌溉的农业生计，它有气候和政治原因造成的饥荒的历史。本论文包括三项研究。前两项研究是定性的初次访谈，招募，同意，结构化访谈和协议均已获得UCLA机构审查委员会的批准，但在分析中使用了包括t检验和Fisher精确检验在内的混合方法。第三项研究是定量的，并使用了来自埃塞俄比亚农村家庭调查（1994-2009年）的七次调查的面板数据。调查结果表明，某些人的迁移是由于有形和无形资产不足而造成的，这是由于单产减少或变化，强迫出售牲畜，出售其他资产或需要额外收入所致。小幅土地，低水平的教育，化肥贷款和税收债务是造成资产水平低的另外原因。出于自愿或为了获得更好的工作或教育而提高社会或经济地位的愿望是促使他人迁移的原因。自愿移民的人经常报告说拥有足够的土地，农作物产量和食物。很少有人能够使用安全网计划，而报告了不足或不想要的规定的人也无法使用。；第二项研究涉及三个农村村庄的35个户主或代理户主。调查结果表明，家庭可以通过一些策略来应对资产短缺和气候变化，包括出售动物，食用其他较不受欢迎的食物，减少食用量以及出售其他资产。几乎所有受访者都担心金钱，土地和食物，需要更多的金钱，土地和动物。据报道，气候变化会影响农作物产量。埃塞俄比亚是每天三餐的文化。在美食的月份中，成人和儿童每天要吃三顿饭。在营养不良的月份，为了保持儿童的营养状况，成年人和儿童都少吃些饭，成年人要少吃些饭。在糟糕的月份里，土地面积最少，家庭成员最多的家庭的成年人吃饭次数最少。仅在最坏的情况下，个人才报告有任何人从家庭移民，尽管大多数人报告过过去有家庭成员在移民。一些人认为他们将来会迁移，主要是为了土地或教育。；第三项研究使用了埃塞俄比亚农村家庭调查的纵向面板数据，覆盖了20年中的1,477户家庭。分析方法涉及结果与预测变量之间的双变量和多变量关系的分层线性建模，以及用于检验灌溉对降雨充足性和粮食安全状况的修正的精细化模型。分层线性模型测试了观察到的关系中有多少可以归因于家庭，村庄，地区和特定时间方面。研究表明，家庭的食品安全状况会随着时间不断变化。家庭所在地，其地理位置和时间是家庭粮食安全状况的最重要预测指标，两者都是气候影响的指标。灌溉还表明，仅靠降雨不足，粮食安全状况得到改善，这表明虽然气候是粮食安全的重要预测指标，但灌溉改变了这种关系，并改变了地理或家庭所在地的影响。家庭农作物储存改善了粮食安全状况，而免费粮食分发和家庭资产没有受到影响。然而，家庭资产确实会影响家庭的应变能力，应对策略家庭使用的类型和选择。这三项研究的结果为埃塞俄比亚随着时间的推移应对策略的使用和粮食安全状况提供了新的支持性知识，证明了气候变化的影响以及埃塞俄比亚的迁徙原因。这些研究还证实了目前描述埃塞俄比亚安全网计划覆盖范围和援助不足的文献，为改善扶贫和对气候敏感的政策建议提供了指导。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hunnes, Dana Ellis.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Los Angeles.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Los Angeles.;
  • 学科 Public health.;Environmental science.;Climate change.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 217 p.
  • 总页数 217
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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