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An Empirical Inquiry into the Development of Financial Structures and Economic Growth.

机译：对金融结构和经济增长发展的实证研究。

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摘要

This work contributes to the literature in comparative financial macroeconomics focusing on empirical evaluations of financial structures and economic growth with a secondary emphasis on corresponding appropriate public policy measures.;A study of the indicators of financial structure was carried out for 210 countries over the period of 1960-2009. The study used Principal Components Analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the structures while retaining the explanation of maximum variations. The study then separately performed a cross-sectional analysis on the original dataset to examine the relationship of the indicators of the financial structure with respect to economic growth. Those indicators were deemed either robust or fragile after a robustness check using a variant of Levine and Renelt's Extreme Bounds Analysis. Lastly, Partial Least Squares were used to determine which indicators were the best predictors for explaining both economic growth and changes in the financial structures.;Principal Components Analysis reveals that private credit, bank deposits, other financial assets, liquid liabilities and non-life insurance explained the maximum variation. Liquid liabilities were nearly perfectly correlated with financial system deposits. Non-life insurance had a very low correlation with life insurance so the two variables could be combined. Furthermore, stock, public bond and private bond markets capitalizations’ had very low inter-correlations.;The Cross-Sectional Analysis with Extreme Bounds reveals, in the most restrictive of all models that bank deposits, bank assets, other financial assets, financial system deposits, liquid liabilities, private credit and liquidity were the positive robust indicators. Life insurance premiums were also found to be robust and positive. Bank concentration, bank income derived from interest earned, overhead and public bonds were robust with negative coefficients. Bank’s return on equity and assets as well as their cost-income ratios were barely fragile and negative. Last critical points of consideration in these analyses were that trade openness and initial primary schooling variables were robust and positive while population growth rate was robust and negative. The initial GDP per capita was robust and negative providing further evidence of conditional convergence. Government’s share in real GDP per capita and inflation rate were not statistically significant or robust.;Combining the two research goals, Partial Least Squares reveals that liquid liabilities, private credit, bank deposits, bank assets, public bond markets, other financial assets, life insurance premiums and international debt were considered important predictors of economic growth. Among the other explanatory determinants of growth, population growth rate, investments (as mapped by both investment’s share in real GDP per capita and growth rate of new capital accumulation) and trade openness were estimated to be very important variables. Inflation rate was considered important only with imputed estimates and once again, government’s share in real GDP per capita and taxes were not considered important with respect to the dual mandates of this methodology.
机译：这项工作为比较金融宏观经济学方面的文献做出了贡献，侧重于对金融结构和经济增长的实证评估，其次是对相应的适当公共政策措施的研究。在此期间，对210个国家的金融结构指标进行了研究。 1960-2009年。该研究使用主成分分析法减少了结构的尺寸，同时保留了对最大变化的解释。然后，该研究分别对原始数据集进行了横断面分析，以检查金融结构指标与经济增长之间的关系。使用Levine和Renelt的“极限界限分析”的变体进行稳健性检查后，这些指标被认为是稳健或脆弱的。最后，使用偏最小二乘来确定哪些指标是解释经济增长和金融结构变化的最佳预测指标。主成分分析显示，私人信贷，银行存款，其他金融资产，流动负债和非寿险解释了最大变化。流动负债与金融系统存款几乎完全相关。非人寿保险与人寿保险的相关性非常低，因此可以将这两个变量结合起来。此外，股票，公共债券和私人债券市场资本之间的相关性非常低。;带有极限范围的跨部门分析显示，在所有模型中，限制性最高的是银行存款，银行资产，其他金融资产，金融系统存款，流动负债，私人信贷和流动性是积极的积极指标。人寿保险费也被认为是稳健和正数的。银行集中度，从赚取的利息获得的银行收入，间接费用和公共债券表现强劲，均具有负系数。银行的股本和资产收益率以及它们的成本收入比率几乎是脆弱且为负的。这些分析中需要考虑的最后关键点是，贸易开放度和初始小学教育变量既强劲又积极，而人口增长率则强劲而消极。最初的人均GDP强劲且为负，为有条件趋同提供了进一步的证据。政府在实际人均GDP和通货膨胀率中的份额在统计上不是显着或稳健的；结合两个研究目标，偏最小二乘揭示了流动负债，私人信贷，银行存款，银行资产，公共债券市场，其他金融资产，寿命保险费和国际债务被认为是经济增长的重要预测指标。在增长的其他解释性决定因素中，人口增长率，投资（由投资在实际人均国内生产总值中的份额和新资本积累的增长率所映射）和贸易开放度被认为是非常重要的变量。通货膨胀率仅在估算时才被认为是重要的，再一次，就该方法的双重任务而言，政府在实际人均GDP和税收中所占的份额并不重要。

著录项

  • 作者

    Rezavi, Gibran H.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Chicago.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Chicago.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.;Business Administration Banking.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 242 p.
  • 总页数 242
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 遥感技术;
  • 关键词

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