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首页> 外文学位 >Exploration of Surveillance and Control Strategies for Re-emerging Schistosomiasis Environments in Sichuan Province, China - The Development and Application of an Individually-based Model.
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Exploration of Surveillance and Control Strategies for Re-emerging Schistosomiasis Environments in Sichuan Province, China - The Development and Application of an Individually-based Model.

机译：中国四川省再次出现血吸虫病环境的监测和控制策略的探索-基于个体的模型的开发和应用。

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摘要

Schistosomiasis is still prevalent in seven provinces in China despite several decades of continuous effort. Suppression of transmission in low-infection areas proves to be extremely difficult, and re-emergence of the disease in areas it was previously controlled or eliminated further complicates the situation. New surveillance and control strategies based on a better understanding of current transmission patterns are therefore crucial to the achievement of disease elimination. This dissertation explores these questions with the focus on the hilly and mountainous regions in Sichuan Province.;The main contents of this dissertation are centered on the development and simulation of a stochastic individually-based model. Focused on two cohorts representing the post-equilibrium and re-emerging environments, respectively, survey protocols and data description on human demographics, infection status, snail density, and cercarial mouse bioassay are presented and compared. A health education intervention was also introduced as an example of how individual data could be used for hypothesis testing related to model component determination. Upon development of the model, Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted to account for randomness from multiple sources including parasite acquisition, worm development, egg shedding and infection testing.;Surveillance results in the re-emerging villages indicated low sensitivity of current techniques for low infection-intensity environment. The distribution of individual susceptibility to S. japonicum infection appeared to be log-normally distributed with a high skewness. Given the cercarial density and water contact magnitude distributions of the surveyed populations, a considerable fraction of people had susceptibility levels that would not lead to infection. For infection surveillance purposes, sampling individuals with high susceptibility has markedly greater efficiency than other indices focused on either water or cercarial exposure. Based on these findings, priorities should be given to the development of more sensitive environmental monitoring and infection testing methods and exploration of an appropriate and quantifiable index for susceptibility. Environmental and economic modifications in addition to the traditional control methods need to be conceptualized and implemented to further conquer the disease and achieve comprehensive elimination.
机译：尽管经过数十年的不懈努力，血吸虫病仍在中国的七个省中流行。事实证明，在低感染地区抑制传播非常困难，而在以前被控制或消除的地区再次出现这种疾病，使情况更加复杂。因此，基于对当前传播方式的更好理解的新监视和控制策略对于实现疾病消除至关重要。本文以四川省丘陵山区为研究对象，对这些问题进行了探讨。本文的主要研究内容是基于随机个体模型的开发与仿真。针对分别代表平衡后和重新出现的环境的两个队列，提出并比较了有关人类人口统计学，感染状况，蜗牛密度和子宫颈小鼠生物测定的调查方案和数据描述。还介绍了健康教育干预措施，以作为示例，说明如何将个人数据用于与模型成分确定相关的假设检验。建立模型后，进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以考虑多种来源的随机性，包括寄生虫采集，蠕虫发育，卵子脱落和感染测试。；重新出现的村庄的监测结果表明，当前技术对低感染的敏感性较低。强度环境。日本血吸虫感染的个体易感性分布似乎呈对数正态分布，偏度很高。考虑到被调查人群的盲肠密度和水接触量分布，相当一部分人的易感性水平不会导致感染。出于感染监测的目的，对易感性高的人进行采样的效率明显高于其他关注水或子宫颈暴露的指标。基于这些发现，应优先考虑开发更敏感的环境监测和感染测试方法，并探索适当和可量化的药敏指数。除了传统的控制方法外，还需要对环境和经济方面的修改进行概念化和实施，以进一步征服该疾病并实现全面消除。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wang, Shuo.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Berkeley.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Berkeley.;
  • 学科 Environmental health.;Biostatistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 106 p.
  • 总页数 106
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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