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Exploring and modeling of bidding behavior and strategies of online auctions.

机译：探索和建模在线拍卖的出价行为和策略。

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摘要

Internet auctions, as an exemplar of the recent boom in e-commerce, are growing faster than ever in the last decade. Understanding the reasons why bidders be- have a certain way allows invaluable insight into the auction process. This research focuses on methods for modeling, testing and estimation of bidders' behavior and strategies.;I start my discussion with bid shading, which is a common strategy bidders believe obtains the lowest possible price. While almost all bidders shade their bids, at least to some degree, it is impossible to infer the degree and volume of shaded bids directly from observed bidding data. In fact, most bidding data only allows researchers to observe the resulting price process, i.e. whether prices increase fast (due to little shading) or whether they slow down (when all bidders shade their bids). In this work, I propose an agent-based model that simulates bidders with different bidding strategies and their interaction with one another. The model is calibrated (and hence properties about the propensity and degree of shaded bids are estimated) by matching the emerging simulated price process with that of the observed auction data using genetic algorithms. From a statistical point of view, this is challenging because it requires matching functional draws from simulated and real price processes. I propose several competing fitness functions and explore how the choice alters the resulting ABM calibration. The method is applied to the context of eBay auctions for digital cameras and show that a balanced fitness function yields the best results.;Furthermore, in light of the discrepancy find from the model in bidders' behavior and optimal strategies proposed from online auction literature. I extract empirical bidding strategies from auction winners and utilize the agent based model to simulate and test the performance of twenty-four different empirical and theoretical strategies. The experiment results suggest that some empirical strategies perform robustly when compared to theoretical strategies and taking into account other bidders' ability to learn.;In addition, I expended the online auction framework from single auction to multiple auction simulation, which acts as a platform for investigating and testing more complicated situations that involves the competition among concurrent auctions. This framework facilitates my investigation of bidders' switching behavior and enables me to answer a series questions. For example, is it beneficial for auction website to promote bidders' switching behavior? Will bidders and even sellers get any advantage from bidders' switching? What is the best auction recommendation strategy for online auction website to obtain higher profit and/or a better customer experience? Through careful experiment design, it has been showed that higher switching frequency leads to higher profit for auction website and reduces the price dispersion, which leads to reduced risk for both bidders and sellers. In addition, the best auction recommendation strategy is providing the five earliest closing auctions so that bidders can choose the lowest price auction.
机译：作为最近电子商务蓬勃发展的典范，互联网拍卖正以过去十年来前所未有的速度增长。了解竞标者采取某种方式的原因可以使您对拍卖过程有无价的见解。这项研究的重点是建模，测试和评估投标人的行为和策略的方法。我从投标阴影开始讨论，这是投标人认为能获得最低价格的常见策略。尽管几乎所有投标人都至少在某种程度上掩盖了他们的出价，但无法直接从观察到的出价数据中推断出被掩盖的投标的程度和数量。实际上，大多数出价数据仅允许研究人员观察由此产生的价格过程，即价格是否快速上涨（由于阴影少）或价格是否放慢（所有投标者对出价进行遮挡时）。在这项工作中，我提出了一个基于代理的模型，该模型可以模拟具有不同出价策略的出价者以及彼此之间的交互。通过使用遗传算法将新兴的模拟价格过程与观察到的拍卖数据的过程进行匹配，从而对模型进行了校准（因此，可以估算出有关阴影出价的倾向和程度的属性）。从统计的角度来看，这具有挑战性，因为它需要匹配来自模拟和真实价格过程的功能抽取。我提出了一些竞争性健身功能，并探讨了选择如何改变所得的ABM校准。该方法应用于数字相机的eBay拍卖，表明平衡的适应度函数可以产生最佳结果。此外，鉴于模型中的竞标者行为和在线拍卖文献中提出的最佳策略存在差异。我从拍卖中标者中提取了经验竞标策略，并利用基于主体的模型来模拟和测试二十四种不同的经验和理论策略的性能。实验结果表明，与理论策略相比，并考虑到其他竞标者的学习能力，一些经验策略表现良好。;此外，我将在线拍卖框架从单次拍卖扩展到了多次拍卖模拟，这为调查和测试更复杂的情况，这些情况涉及并发拍卖之间的竞争。该框架有助于我对投标人的转换行为进行调查，并使我能够回答一系列问题。例如，拍卖网站促进竞标者的转换行为是否有益？投标者甚至卖方会从投标者的转换中获得任何好处吗？在线拍卖网站获得更高利润和/或更好的客户体验的最佳拍卖推荐策略是什么？通过仔细的实验​​设计，结果表明，较高的切换频率可以提高拍卖网站的利润，并降低价格分散性，从而降低投标者和卖方的风险。此外，最佳拍卖推荐策略是提供五个最早的结束拍卖，以便投标人可以选择最低价的拍卖。

著录项

  • 作者

    Guo, Wei.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Business Administration General.;Business Administration Marketing.;Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 113 p.
  • 总页数 113
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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