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An empirical investigation using a real options analysis framework for making the optimal allocations of financial resources and application to investment decisions under uncertainty.

机译：使用实物期权分析框架进行的实证研究，用于在不确定性条件下优化财务资源分配并将其应用于投资决策。

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摘要

Financial investment decision-making for projects under uncertainty is a complicated process. The interactions between individual decision-makers risk preferences and their corresponding investment allocation decisions were studied. The risk profiles and risk tolerances of this study's corporate participants were assessed and their pattern of decision making in an investment setting with distinct scenarios under uncertainty were analyzed. Those risk preference biases that arise from the individual decision-maker's propensity to assume risk and their recognition and assignment of risk are then applied to the context of financial valuation analysis.;Individual biases attributed to the interpretations and sentiments toward risk were found to significantly impact the financial valuations as well as the decision making process. This study will result in theoretical contributions regarding risk preferences and financial valuations. The treatment of any biases from risk preferences in subjective probability assignment will be dealt with through straightforward statistical techniques. The individual bias will be corrected for the participants involved in the study. The results of biased and unbiased financial valuations will be calculated and compared. It is demonstrated that a significant difference in the valuations will exist.;This study develops a method for evaluating bias so that its negative effects on project financial valuation methods may be eliminated. Investment decision-making will become more consistent and accurate as a result of the treatment of biases. This research results in financial valuations that are more consistent and accurate through the reduction of biases attributed to risk preferences and job occupation.
机译：不确定情况下项目的金融投资决策是一个复杂的过程。研究了个体决策者风险偏好与他们相应的投资分配决策之间的相互作用。评估了这项研究的公司参与者的风险概况和风险承受能力，并分析了他们在不确定情况下具有不同情景的投资环境中的决策模式。这些因个人决策者承担风险的倾向而产生的风险偏好偏差以及他们对风险的识别和分配将其应用于财务估值分析的上下文中;发现归因于风险的解释和情感的个体偏差会产生重大影响财务估值以及决策过程。这项研究将为有关风险偏好和财务估值的理论贡献。主观概率分配中来自风险偏好的任何偏差的处理将通过简单的统计技术进行处理。将针对参与研究的参与者纠正个人偏见。有偏和无偏的财务估值的结果将被计算和比较。证明了估值之间将存在显着差异。本研究开发了一种评估偏差的方法，以消除其对项目财务估值方法的负面影响。通过处理偏差，投资决策将变得更加一致和准确。通过减少归因于风险偏好和职业的偏见，本研究得出的财务估值更加一致和准确。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hurley, Pamela Rachel.;

  • 作者单位

    Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.;

  • 授予单位 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Management.;Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 158 p.
  • 总页数 158
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 贸易经济;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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