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首页> 外文学位 >Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics, assessment, and control strategy evaluation in the St. Marys River, Michigan.
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Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics, assessment, and control strategy evaluation in the St. Marys River, Michigan.

机译：密歇根州圣玛丽斯河的南鳗（Petromyzon marinus）种群动态，评估和控制策略评估。

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摘要

The St. Marys River is a major producer of invasive parasitic sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) to Lake Huron. My dissertation seeks to inform the management process for sea lamprey through a combination of statistical and simulation modeling. In Chapter 1, I developed a spatial age-structured model and applied it to the sea lamprey population in the St. Marys River. The model included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. During 1993--2011, transformer escapement decreased by 86%. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. In Chapter 2, I evaluated six methods of estimating sea lamprey density and abundance including the currently used sampling-based estimates, generalized linear and additive models, the population model from Chapter 1, and a hybrid approach. Methods were evaluated based on accuracy in matching independent validation data. The hybrid method was identified as the best method to inform sea lamprey control decisions in the St. Marys River due to its consistent performance. In Chapter 3, I used a resampling approach to estimate the effect of sampling intensity on the success of sea lamprey control and examined the economic tradeoff between assessment and control efforts. Sea lamprey control actions based on assessment outperformed those implemented with no assessment under all budget scenarios. The sampling intensity that maximized the number of larvae killed depended on the overall budget, with increased sampling intensities maximizing effectiveness under medium to large budgets. In Chapter 4, I conducted a management strategy evaluation using a stochastic simulation model to evaluate several fixed and survey-based Bayluscide-based treatment strategies for sea lamprey. The model incorporated population dynamics, sampling and assessment, and larval control actions. Treatment options with higher cost resulted in larger long-term reductions in transformer escapement, but increasing treatment effort did not result in a proportional decrease in transformer escapement. Survey-based treatment scenarios were the most desirable from both an economic and population control perspective.
机译：圣玛丽河是入侵休伦湖的寄生性海七lamp（Petromyzon marinus）的主要生产者。本论文力图通过统计与模拟相结合的方法，为海鳗的管理提供依据。在第一章中，我开发了一个空间年龄结构模型，并将其应用于圣玛丽斯河的海七lamp鳗种群。该模型包括种群招聘功能，空间募集模式，自然死亡率，化学治疗死亡率和幼虫变态。招聘是可变的，随着时间的推移，招聘地点向上游转移。在1993--2011年期间，变压器擒纵机构下降了86％。该模型成功地确定了幼虫丰度高的区域，并表明低幼虫密度的区域对种群有重要贡献。在第2章中，我评估了六种估计海lamp鳗密度和丰度的方法，包括当前使用的基于采样的估计，广义线性模型和加性模型，第1章中的人口模型以及一种混合方法。根据匹配独立验证数据的准确性评估方法。由于其性能稳定，混合方法被认为是告知圣玛丽斯河南七里河控制决策的最佳方法。在第3章中，我使用了重采样方法来估计采样强度对海鳗的成功控制的影响，并研究了评估和控制工作之间的经济权衡。在所有预算方案下，基于评估的海鳗的控制行动都优于未进行评估的行动。使杀灭幼虫数量最大化的采样强度取决于总体预算，增加采样强度可使中到大型预算下的有效性最大化。在第4章中，我使用随机模拟模型进行了一项管理策略评估，以评估几种固定的和基于调查的基于Bayluscide的海鳗的治疗策略。该模型结合了种群动态，抽样和评估以及幼虫控制措施。成本较高的治疗选择可以长期较大地减少变压器的擒纵机构，但是增加处理工作量并不会导致变压器的擒纵机构成比例地减少。从经济和人口控制的角度来看，基于调查的治疗方案是最可取的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Robinson, Jason M.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Agriculture Fisheries and Aquaculture.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 184 p.
  • 总页数 184
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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