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首页> 外文学位 >Nuclear terrorism risk reduction: Evaluating the effectiveness of the Department of Energy's United States/Russian nuclear Material Protection Control and Accounting (MPC&A) program.
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Nuclear terrorism risk reduction: Evaluating the effectiveness of the Department of Energy's United States/Russian nuclear Material Protection Control and Accounting (MPC&A) program.

机译：减少核恐怖主义风险：评估美国能源部美国/俄罗斯核材料保护控制和核算（MPC＆A）计划的有效性。

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摘要

The dissertation examines the relative effectiveness of the DOE MPC&A Program. It asks "how effective has the program been at increasing the physical security for Russian nuclear material", operationalizing the variable of "effective" in terms of risk reduction. Assumptions include (1) a quantifiable reduction of risk to Russian nuclear targets suggests that US/Russian efforts to increase security have been effective; and (2) the case study selected is a representative sample of projects currently active in NA-25 to upgrade Physical Protective Systems (PPS) to reduce risk to nuclear warheads and material.; Findings include: (1) The MPC&A program has been successful to the extent it has been allowed to be by US and Russian actors; (2) Nuclear targets at sites where access has been allowed are measurably safer; (3) Nuclear targets where access has thus far not been authorized are unlikely to be measurably safer; (4) "Measurably safer" has meaning only in relation to the design basis threat against which physical protective systems were designed. At threat levels sufficiently elevated above design basis threats, "measurably safer" becomes meaningless; (5) To the extent that a larger number of nuclear targets have not yet been provided with upgrades than those that have, the program has been less successful than anticipated; (6) To the extent that remaining nuclear targets may be concentrated at a smaller number of sites, should access eventually be granted to these it is likely that total percentages of nuclear targets for which physical security has been upgraded would increase sharply; (7) Funding is determinative to programmatic pace of progress. It is not, however, the only determining factor. If funding were unlimited, pace of progress would still be limited by the number of sites to which access was available. If all sites were suddenly accessible, pace of progress would still be limited by numbers of trained personnel and other infrastructure constraints. Accelerating rate of progress will require addressing all three; (8) The operational parameters of the Russian environment, to include, particularly, contending infrastructure priorities, are such that it is unlikely that rate of progress will be successfully increased from the bottom-up. Instead, successful strategies will most likely incorporate top-down mechanisms.
机译：本文考察了能源部MPC＆A计划的相对有效性。它询问“该计划在提高俄罗斯核材料的物理安全性方面有多有效”，在降低风险方面实施了“有效”变量。假设包括：（1）可量化地降低俄罗斯核目标的风险，这表明美俄增强安全的努力是有效的； （2）所选案例研究是目前在NA-25中活跃的，旨在升级物理保护系统（PPS）以减少核弹头和材料风险的代表性项目。研究结果包括：（1）MPC＆A计划在美国和俄罗斯参与者允许的范围内已经成功； （2）允许进入的地点的核目标明显更安全； （3）迄今尚未获得准许进入的核目标不太可能被测量为更安全； （4）“相当安全”仅与设计物理防护系统所针对的设计基准威胁有关。在威胁级别充分高于设计基准威胁的情况下，“明显更安全”变得毫无意义； （5）在尚未提供比升级目标更大数量的核目标的情况下，该计划未如预期那样成功； （6）如果剩余的核目标可能集中在少数几个地点，那么如果最终准予使用这些地点，那么经过实物安全升级的核目标的总百分比可能会急剧增加； （7）资金取决于方案进度。但是，它不是唯一的决定因素。如果资金是无限的，那么进展的速度仍将受到可访问的站点数量的限制。如果所有站点都可以突然访问，则进度的步伐仍将受训练有素的人员数量和其他基础架构限制。加快进度将需要解决所有这三个方面； （8）俄罗斯环境的操作参数，特别是包括竞争激烈的基础设施优先事项，使得自下而上的成功率不可能成功提高。相反，成功的策略很可能将采用自上而下的机制。

著录项

  • 作者

    Brunsdon, William C.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Denver.;

  • 授予单位 University of Denver.;
  • 学科 Political Science International Law and Relations.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 307 p.
  • 总页数 307
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 国际法;
  • 关键词

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