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Subjective and objective risks consideration in modeling highway safety.

机译：在高速公路安全建模中要考虑主观和客观风险。

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摘要

The study of highway crash occurrence and its causation has been a prominent research subject in recent decades due to its significant impact and cost to society. Highway crashes are random events that are caused by many and very different contributing factors. The principal factors are categorized as roadway, vehicle, and driver factors and their relationships with crashes are extremely complex. Extensive research has resulted in prediction models that separately link the roadway characteristics with the speed or the crash frequency (or rate). It is accepted that a link exists between the objective risk and the subjective risk that is determinant in the likelihood of a crash, but their relationship has not been fully researched. This dissertation presents the results of a study that measured and evaluated the risk perception of drivers using roadway characteristics, free-flow speeds, and crash data collected on four-lane highway sections in Indiana. The results of the risk perception study shed light on the relationship between the objective risk and the subjective risk and provided an understanding of the individual effects of the roadway and driver characteristics on the risk perception. The goal of this dissertation is to present the results of an exploratory analysis of the relationship between roadway characteristics, driver behavior as influenced by the perceived risk, and safety. An advanced econometric model was developed using a system of simultaneous equations that links the speed, the crash rate, and the roadway characteristics. The model provides a valuable contribution to the field of highway safety evaluation. The model results confirm that increasing speed is related to increasing crash rates; and that drivers, on average, can perceive the risk of crash on the road based on the roadway characteristics, and consequently adjust their behavior by modifying their speed. The use of a simultaneous equations approach to calibrate the proposed system of relationships, aside from being the correct formulation to model the endogenous relationship between speed and crashes, proved to be consistent with rational driver behavior and improved the identification of speed and crash rate factors when compared with the single-equation modeling approaches.
机译：由于其对社会的重大影响和代价，对高速公路事故发生及其成因的研究已成为近几十年来的重要研究课题。高速公路事故是由许多非常不同的影响因素引起的随机事件。主要因素分为道路，车辆和驾驶员因素，它们与碰撞的关系非常复杂。广泛的研究产生了预测模型，这些模型分别将道路特征与速度或碰撞频率（或比率）联系起来。公认的是，客观风险和主观风险之间存在联系，该联系决定了发生撞车的可能性，但是它们之间的关系尚未得到充分研究。本文提出了一项研究的结果，该研究使用道路特征，自由流速度和在印第安纳州四车道高速公路段收集的碰撞数据来测量和评估驾驶员的风险感知。风险感知研究的结果阐明了客观风险和主观风险之间的关系，并提供了对巷道和驾驶员特征对风险感知的个体影响的理解。本文的目的是提出对道路特征，受感知风险影响的驾驶员行为与安全性之间关系的探索性分析结果。使用将速度，碰撞率和道路特征联系起来的联立方程组，开发了一种先进的计量经济学模型。该模型为公路安全评估领域提供了宝贵的贡献。模型结果证实，提高速度与提高撞车率有关；平均而言，驾驶员可以根据道路特征察觉到道路上发生撞车的风险，因此可以通过更改速度来调整行为。除了作为对速度和碰撞之间的内生关系进行建模的正确公式之外，使用联立方程法来校准提议的关系系统，事实证明，这与驾驶员的合理行为是一致的，并且可以改善对速度和碰撞率因素的识别。与单方程建模方法相比。

著录项

  • 作者

    Figueroa-Medina, Alberto Miguel.;

  • 作者单位

    Purdue University.;

  • 授予单位 Purdue University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 187 p.
  • 总页数 187
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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