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Global Financial Crisis and Tanzania: An Examination of the Transmission Channels and Impact of the Crisis.

机译：全球金融危机和坦桑尼亚：传播渠道和危机影响的检验。

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摘要

The first stage of the spread of the global financial crisis, which started in the US in 2007, was characterized by the rapid spread of the financial turmoil from the United States to other developed economies and some Emerging Markets (IMF, 2010; Willett et al, 2009). Many scholars at this time were of the view that the crisis would not touch developing countries due to having weak connection to the international financial instruments (IMF, 2009). A few months into the crisis, however, it was noted that such expectation would not be correct as many studies revealed that developing economies could be affected by the crisis through transmission channels.;In this study, using time series data, we investigated how the current financial crisis has been transmitted to the Tanzanian economy and the appropriateness of government policy responses to counter the recession. The channels we examined are foreign aid, export earning, foreign direct investment and government expenditure; all being percentages of real GDP. The study uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) models; and the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) to assess the persistence of the economy to exogenous shocks and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). We found the global financial crisis had only a small effect on Tanzania's economic growth. We replicated the study to Kenya and got similar results.
机译：全球金融危机蔓延的第一阶段始于2007年美国，其特征是金融动荡从美国迅速蔓延到其他发达经济体和某些新兴市场（IMF，2010； Willett等，2009）。当时许多学者认为，由于与国际金融工具的联系薄弱，危机不会触及发展中国家（IMF，2009）。然而，危机爆发后的几个月，人们注意到这种期望是不正确的，因为许多研究表明，发展中经济体可能会通过传播渠道受到危机的影响。在这项研究中，我们使用时间序列数据调查了当前的金融危机已转移至坦桑尼亚经济，政府应对危机的政策反应是否适当。我们研究的渠道是外国援助，出口收入，外国直接投资和政府支出；全部为实际GDP的百分比。该研究使用向量自回归（VAR）模型；以及自动回归移动平均线（ARMA）来评估经济对外来冲击的持续性和动态普通最小二乘法（DOLS）。我们发现，全球金融危机对坦桑尼亚的经济增长影响很小。我们将研究复制到肯尼亚，并获得了相似的结果。

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  • 作者

    Kazi, Maduhu Isaac.;

  • 作者单位

    The Claremont Graduate University.;

  • 授予单位 The Claremont Graduate University.;
  • 学科 Economics History.;History Modern.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 192 p.
  • 总页数 192
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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