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Accounting for parameter uncertainty and temporal variability in coupled groundwater-surface water models using component and systems reliability analysis.

机译：使用组件和系统可靠性分析来考虑地下水-地表水耦合模型中的参数不确定性和时间变异性。

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摘要

The connections between streams and aquifers can be spatially variable and uncertain due to heterogeneity in geology and topography. During drought seasons, farming activities may induce critical peak pumping rates to supply irrigation water needs for crops. This may lead to increased concerns about reduction in baseflow and adverse impacts upon riverine ecosystems. As an example, conflicts have been documented between different water users in Kankakee River during the low-flow seasons in 1987, 1988, and 2005. Quantitative management of the groundwater is a required component in this particular human-nature system to evaluate the trade offs between irrigation agriculture and the ecosystems requirements.;Forecast of the impact of pumping on river-aquifer exchange depends upon uncertain and spatially variable hydrogeological parameters, as well as temporally uncertain streamflow. In this study a novel component - systems reliability analysis framework is developed to assess risk. Physical parameters uncertainty is studied in light of the Glover-Balmer and MODFLOW models, while temporal random streamflow is modeled as a Markov process. Reliability methods have been developed in the aerospace industry and extensively applied in structural engineering, but have only seen limited use in water resources. In addition to risk evaluation, the proposed framework will produce sensitivities, importance measures and shares of individual uncertain sources on the overall risk. It naturally accounts for any type of statistical dependence.;By means of hypothetical examples, the fundamental aspects of the proposed scheme are introduced. They also open an afresh avenue to address efficiently key issues for managers who frequently deal with risk-informed decisions. The results have been validated with MCS, solely for the risk assessment. With MCS would result computationally demanding to obtain sensitivities and importance measures under transient conditions.
机译：由于地质和地形的异质性，溪流和含水层之间的联系在空间上是可变的，并且不确定。在干旱季节，农业活动可能会导致临界峰值抽水率，以满足农作物的灌溉用水需求。这可能导致人们对减少基础流量以及对河流生态系统的不利影响的担忧增加。例如，在1987年，1988年和2005年的淡水季节，坎卡基河的不同用水户之间发生了冲突。在这种特殊的人为系统中，评估地下水的权衡取舍需要对地下水进行定量管理。灌溉对河水交换的影响的预测取决于不确定和空间变化的水文地质参数，以及时间不确定的水流。在这项研究中，开发了一种新颖的组件-系统可靠性分析框架来评估风险。根据Glover-Balmer模型和MODFLOW模型研究了物理参数不确定性，而时间随机流被建模为马尔可夫过程。可靠性方法已在航空航天工业中开发，并广泛应用于结构工程，但仅在水资源中使用有限。除了风险评估之外，拟议的框架还将产生敏感性，重要性衡量标准以及对整体风险的各个不确定来源的份额。它自然可以解释任何类型的统计依赖性。通过假设的例子，介绍了所提出的方案的基本方面。他们还为经常处理与风险有关的决策的管理人员开辟了一条新途径，以有效解决关键问题。结果已通过MCS验证，仅用于风险评估。有了MCS，计算结果将要求在瞬态条件下获得灵敏度和重要性度量。

著录项

  • 作者

    Oviedo Salcedo, Diego Martin.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.;Hydrology.;Water Resource Management.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 110 p.
  • 总页数 110
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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